ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The U.S. dollar rallied into the Federal Reserve’s latest decision on monetary policy. This move seemed to launch (finally) the start of a relief rally that I have tried to anticipate as the dollar approached its support at the 200-day moving average (DMA). The uncertainty over the outcome of the Fed decision encouraged me to … Read more
The recent descent in the U.S. dollar continues nearly unabated. Even as I pointed out the importance of the 200-day moving average (DMA) for the U.S. dollar, deep, deep down inside I felt the U.S. dollar would finally put up a fight at this key support level. The trends that have brought us to this … Read more
The rally in the British Pound may finally be on its last legs. I am sure the Bank of England hopes so as it meets to decide interest rates tomorrow. I wrote just last week about the potential for the pound to break out versus the U.S. dollar, and it has done so quite convincingly. … Read more
The U.S. dollar index touched its 200-day moving average with the kind of precision only a technician can love. *Chart created using TeleChart: I keep waiting for (and betting on) the dollar to get a nice relief bounce against the yen, but the dollar’s near straight-line descent has been the main story. While I wait … Read more
Here we are again: The U.S. dollar index looks ready to test its 200-day moving average (DMA). The near unrelenting selling of the dollar against all the major currencies has left the currency grasping for its believers. A surprisingly strong jobs number on Friday, might, just maybe, provide a catalyst for some kind of relief … Read more
I have often wondered whether Germany’s initial reticence to help the Eurozone solve its debt problems was “engineered”, in part, to devalue the euro from its suffocating highs in 2009. We will likely never know for sure, but the euro’s remarkable slide in 2010 has apparently generated impressive economic results, especially in Germany. There is … Read more
(This is a guest post written by “Chenzo” of forexcharts.net) If any lesson was clear during the past few turbulent weeks of trading, it was that our markets are more closely entwined than ever. Perhaps this is a sign of our continuing globalization path, but the waves created by any financial event are traveling across … Read more
It has been such a long time since I have seen the Fast Money crew on CNBC so uniformly fearful and wary about the stock market that I had to scribble a quick post on it as a bookmark for future review. The show’s sentiment is very consistent with the confluence and convergence of technical … Read more
Last week, I claimed that the deeply oversold conditions presented a short-term buying opportunity, but that the downward trend in the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) and 200DMAs (T2108 and T2107) pointed to a steadily weakening market in the near future. I expected sellers to step up at the … Read more
A catalyst for working off the market’s over-extended and over-bought conditions remains elusive. The Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy statement essentially blessed the market’s stubborn “melt-up.” The statement did not provide the incremental “hawkishness” as I was expecting given last month’s surprise discount rate hike. In fact, this statement’s reference to low rates for an … Read more