ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The Australian dollar has been one of my favorite ways to bet against the U.S. dollar. Earlier this month, the Aussie broke through parity and reached all-time highs versus the U.S. dollar. Since then, the currency has moved steadily lower, taking a brief pause to form the right shoulder in an ominous-looking head and shoulders … Read more
In the wake of the SEC’s charges of fraud against Goldman Sachs (GS), I recommended trying a pairs trade going short GS and long Deutsche Bank (DB). I was betting that either the SEC charges would blow over and DB would rebound sharply, or the gravity of the charges would intensify and GS would sell-off … Read more
Toyota (TM) may be a beneficiary of the yen’s recent losses against the U.S. dollar as well as some encouraging economic news. As the U.S. dollar bottomed at fresh 15-year lows against the yen on November 1st, Toyota’s stock ended its last swoon. On November 4th, TM gapped up and closed 3% higher on a … Read more
I did not think the bulls could pull off an Act 2 defending the 50-day moving average (DMA) support on the S&P 500, but defend they did. Presumably, the stock market left behind fears of a Korean conflagration and an implosion of European sovereign debt in favor of encouraging economic news, like unemployment claims dropping … Read more
Nothing like some geo-political drama to throw in some extra uncertainty into carefully laid out trading plans. After North and South Korea exchanged pleasantries early Tuesday, the dollar’s relief rally continued in dramatic fashion with a 1.3% gain. I am now even more convinced that the dollar will, sooner than later, retest the resistance at … Read more
After the stock market’s sharp rally off the March, 2009 lows, most solar stocks stopped appreciating by that summer. For the remainder of the year, they experienced wild swings up and down in price in quick succession. In the summer of 2010, it appeared prospects had finally turned around for the better for solar stocks … Read more
Rallies in solar stocks would be more exciting if they were not so fleeting. In early September, I noted a “stealth rally” was underway in solar stocks. In early October, I wrote breathlessly about a “soaring September” for solar stocks. Just three weeks later I had to warn that selling volume was picking up in … Read more
After the stock market finally tumbled from overbought conditions, I concluded that “…hope remains for bullish wishes, but all the warning signs are tilting comfort levels to the bears.” Bears are now making themselves feel right at home. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 lost 1.6% on higher than average volume, creating the kind of strong … Read more
After 46 days, the stock market finally dropped out of overbought conditions. On Friday, T2108, the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), plunged below the 70% overbought threshold all the way to 62.5%. The stock market had a historic run. These past 46 trading days created the sixth longest overbought … Read more
Another week, another extension of a historic overbought period in the S&P 500. Based on the closing performance of the stock market’s major indices, you probably would not guess that one of the stock market’s largest companies (Cisco) lost 16% on the day. If there was a day for the market to have an excuse … Read more