Time to Watch the Forex Action Unfold: React, Not Anticipate

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 26, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) It has been a week since the Federal Reserve surprised the globe when it backed off from its earlier tough talk about bond tapering. The U.S. dollar index (UUP) plunged in … Read more

The Franc’s Weakening Should Continue Against the Euro

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 27, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Two weeks ago, I wrote “Time To Short The Franc… With The Euro” as a trading call that combined the likely continued strength in the euro (FXE) and the likely continued … Read more

Time to Short the Franc…With the Euro

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 13, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Swiss franc (FXF) has had a floor against the euro (FXE) set at 1.20 for about 15 months. During that time, there was a stretch of about five months where … Read more

Euro Positioned to Bounce Ahead of Fed and Swiss National Bank Monetary Policy Decisions

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 12, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last week I discussed trading in the Swiss franc (FXF) in the wake of Credit Suisse’s implementation of negative interest rates for large cash balances denoted in Swiss Francs (see “Cash … Read more

The Best Currency Setups to Start the Fourth Quarter

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 1, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The major paper currencies have an on-going problem – many of the financial authorities in charge of preserving their “value” are actively trying to drive that value downward, jawboning for a … Read more

Swiss National Bank Strikes A Dour Note As Franc Remains Over-Valued

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 14, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Swiss National Bank (SNB) struck a very dour note in its latest statement on monetary policy. Blaming in part the continued over-valuation of the Swiss Franc (FXF) – “the Swiss … Read more

The Swiss Franc Loosens Up – Is It Singing for the Euro?

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 5, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} …something happened September 5th that finally had me rethinking my rediscovered, extended bearishness on the euro. The Swiss franc (FXF) suddenly came to life against the euro today, AND, most … Read more

A Hypothesis for the Connection Between the Australian Dollar and the S&P 500

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 20, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) A reader recently asked the following questions in response to my last piece on the relationship between the Australian dollar and the S&P 500 (“A Bearish Divergence As Australian Dollar Stalls … Read more

Swiss Franc Refuses To Confirm Fresh Euro-Optimism

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 1, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) On Thursday, June 28th, Swiss National Bank (SNB) vice chairman Jean-Pierre Danthine repeated a claim made consistently by the SNB: at 1.20 the Swiss franc is overvalued relative to the euro. … Read more

It Is Not Over Until the Fat Franc Flies?

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 11, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) As global financial markets seem set to rally in a reflex “risk on” reaction to the bailout of Spain’s banks, one small corner of the financial universe remains notably somber: the … Read more