With A Rate Decision Looming, Weakening Australian Dollar Sends Poor Signal for Stocks

This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 1, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) While all eyes are trained on U.S. economic data this week, Australians are looking ahead to Monday, February 4th when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) makes its next statement on … Read more

Don’t Overplay the Recovery In Iron Ore Prices

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 7, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Back in September, one of the big stories was the plunge in iron ore prices to three-year lows around $87/ton. With prices down over 50% from the record high of $191/ton … Read more

The Australian Dollar Breaks Out As It Regains Correlation With The S&P 500

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 11, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) On Thursday, January 10th, China reported export growth much larger than forecasters expected. {snip} This surge helped push the Australian dollar (FXA) far enough to finally break a long-standing downtrend against … Read more

Soft Australian Retail Sales Reawakens Anticipation of Rate Cut

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 3, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Analyst consensus anticipates a rate cut at the next meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). I forgive you for being surprised if you have been keeping your eye on … Read more

Reserve Bank of Australia Balks On Inflation – Dollar’s Rise Provides Fresh Shorting Opportunity

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 6, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The timing of The Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate cuts is starting to look like a random number generator. In its latest statement on monetary policy (Nov 6th in Australia), … Read more

T2108 Update (November 7, 2012) – Stocks Break Down As the Dollar Takes the Sidelines

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more

Australian Officials Further Signal Lower Rates to Come

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 2, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) This week featured two interesting speeches by Australian officials. On October 30, Philip Lowe, Deputy Governor for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), gave a speech at the Commonwealth Bank Australasian … Read more

The Reserve Bank of Australia Signals It Will Follow Market Forecasts For Lower Rates

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 16, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Tonight, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its minutes for its October 2nd meeting where it cut interest rates 25 basis points to 3.25%. I was looking for a more … Read more

T2108 Update (October 23, 2012) – Breakdown

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more

Reserve Bank of Australia Emphasizes Overall Resilience Of the Australian Economy

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 25, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) After the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its monetary policy statement on September 4th, I noted how the loudest part of the statement was left unsaid. The RBA raised no … Read more