Why Rio Tinto’s Latest Production Report Failed to Excite the Market

I keep looking for reasons to believe in a bottom for commodities. Recently, the big washout of sellers in commodity giant Glencore looked like such a signal. Upon closer examination, I decided that the bottom is more likely temporary than sustainable. The latest signal was the third quarter (2015) production report from Rio Tinto (RIO) … Read more

T2108 Update (October 7, 2015) – The S&P 500 Reaches Its Highest and Most Important Post-Oversold Close

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

How to Trade the Change In Narrative and Momentum for Iron Ore

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 27, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) One of my tenets from the (revised) “Commodity Crash Playbook” is to respect momentum and trends in commodity trading and investing… {snip} Iron ore has become a fascinating case in point. … Read more

Bad Signs: The Australian Dollar Trips As Iron Ore Stumbles Over $100

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 20, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The miners of iron ore spent the last few years ramping up production capacity, and now they are ramping up production. The price of iron ore has steadily fallen in 2014 … Read more