A Technician’s Wary Eye On Intercept Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Intercept Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ICPT) may indeed have the $5B blockbluster liver drug that RBC Capital Markets claimed in hiking its price target on the stock from $425 to $500. Gilead (GILD) may indeed buy out the company. Other analysts like Leerink Partners who raised its price target from $270 to $445, and Deutsche Bank who … Read more

An Example of Why It Is Often Better To Follow, Not Fight, Trends: Windstream Holdings

At the time of writing, Windstream Holdings, Inc. (WIN) is surging 23.3% on news that the company received a favorable ruling from the IRS to convert to a REIT. From the press release: “Windstream (Nasdaq: WIN), a leading provider of advanced network communications, today announced plans to spin off certain telecommunications network assets into an … Read more

A Dramatic Change in Sentiment for Apple

Just ahead of the start of the Apple Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC), I wrote that I was preparing for a change in Apple’s trading patterns that would impact the Apple Trading Model (ATM). My main interest was in the coming 7-to-1 stock split and the potential for retail traders leaving options alone to trade directly … Read more

Dan Loeb Exit Redux Caps A Rough Eight Days for Herbalife that Bears Well-Anticipated

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 26, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) It has been eight months since I exited my long position in Herbalife (HLF), but the story continues to fascinate me. This time around, bad news came in rapid sequence for … Read more

Solar City Pre-Earnings Technical Review – November, 2013 Edition

Solar City has traded down double digits after each of its three earnings reports: 3/6/2013 -14.4% 5/13/2013 -12.4% 8/7/2013 -10.8% So of course this will happen a fourth time in a row, right? Well, not so fast. The first post-earnings decline simply reversed a pre-earnings run-up. The stock continued upward from there. The second post-earnings … Read more

Apple POST-Earnings Trading and Technical Review – October, 2013 Edition

The Apple October post-earnings reaction played out amazingly close to the roadmap I provided in “Apple Earnings Technical Review – October, 2013 Edition“…except there were a lot more squiggles between points A and B than I anticipated…and my execution could have better. In this post, I review the action and recount lessons learned. First, a … Read more

Post-Icahn and Pre-September News Cycle, Apple Enthusiasm Rushes Back In

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 3, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Source: FreeStockCharts.com This pullback comes ahead of what should be an exciting several weeks for Apple fans. {snip} Perhaps thanks to Carl Icahn’s famous tweets, the enthusiasm for September’s news … Read more

Apple Is Between A Bottom And A Hard $500

About six weeks have passed since Apple printed an apparent bottom in the wake of the tumultuous trading surrounding its April earnings report. With the benefit of hindsight, I think it is worthwhile to look back at some important highlights to consider whether this bottom is a sustainable one and what the prospects might be … Read more

An Apple Bottom As Sentiment Finally Turns Southward (Put Buying Soars)

In previous pieces, I have noted how traders and investors continued to load up on call options on Apple (AAPL) despite its persistent decline off all-time highs (for example see “Bullish Earnings Trading Patterns and Sentiment Collide With Apple’s Recent Downtrend“). It seems sentiment has finally taken a dramatic turn commensurate with the dramatic turn … Read more

T2108 Update (April 18, 2013) – S&P 500 Is Quasi-Oversold for A Critical Test of Support On Options Expiration Day

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more