ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Almost three years ago, I seized on an opportunity to buy iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) after it sold off steeply from a strong 2015. In that year, cocoa ripped ahead of the rest of the commodity space which declined 19% in 2015 while cocoa rallied 10%. In 2018, cocoa was another strong performer. CNBC … Read more
AT40 = 60.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 58.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.0 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Last week the stock market made history by delivering the longest bull market in history. Tonight on Nightly Business Report, markets are … Read more
The price of cocoa has been in near freefall again. The picture-perfect bounce for iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) from its support at 200-day moving average (DMA) reversed into a recent 200DMA breakdown and a convincing breakdown below the June low. Source: FreeStockCharts.com As usual, a flurry of news exists that helps explain at … Read more
AT40 = 64.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (a 4-month high) VIX = 12.0 Short-term Trading Call: bearish Commentary Once again, a tried and true bearish signal delivered. However this success came with a tremendous caveat: a simultaneously … Read more
AT40 = 69.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 57.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (a 4-month high) VIX = 12.2 Short-term Trading Call: neutral (“almost bullish”) Commentary Friday started out in bearish fashion. Apple (AAPL) took a broadside from yet another one of those … Read more
I easily forget that just a year ago the iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) was struggling at its all-time lows as the price of cocoa suffered through a steep bear market. One month ago, NIB hit a 19-month high after surging off the December test of the all-time lows. Taken together, a pullback to … Read more
It did not take long. Two days after I identified a Bollinger Band squeeze on iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB), the technical chart pattern resolved to the downside. NIB has lost 11.9% over this time. Source: FreeStockCharts.com At current levels, NIB has confirmed a top from its 19-month high: a breakdown below the 50-day … Read more
AT40 = 65.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 51.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.7 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Here we are again. The stock market looks like it is breaking free, but there are major caveats which keep me wary … Read more
In commodities, the time to get bullish is usually when prices are pressuring the industry and sentiment is persistently and deeply negative. The time to get bearish is usually when prices are skyrocketing, industry participants are celebrating wondrous fortunes, and sentiment is as euphoric as can be. Since I am long-term bullish on cocoa, I … Read more
On March 8th, I finally took profits and sold the rest of my holdings in iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB). In the past week, NIB came back down to my price and the ETN closed below my selling price to finish the week. I now think the price of cocoa, and thus NIB, has … Read more