The Bullish Signals That Are Hard to Believe – The Market Breadth

Stock Market Commentary: The stock market continued its quest to convince us that the world is getting or soon will get a lot better. Perhaps the market is somehow feeding off the definitive hawkishness from the Federal Reserve. Whatever the explanation, market breadth expanded to levels last seen 4 months ago. The rally demonstrates broadly … Read more

Watch Currencies, Not Stocks, As Geo-Political Tensions Continue to Rise

The news headlines rang out today that Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin gave the orders to send “peacekeeping” troops into two breakaway regions of Ukraine. Stock market futures reacted instantly. Yahoo had a particularly dramatic headline declaring that futures “tanked.” Reflexively, I checked CNBC to review the preliminary damage: S&P futures down 1.8% and the NASDAQ … Read more

The AUD/JPY Divergence Dragging on the Stock Market

Deteriorating market breadth flashed warning signs for the stock market once again. A signal from the currency market is adding weight to the warning: the Australian dollar versus the Japanese yen (AUD/JPY). AUD/JPY represents the divergence dragging on the stock market. AUD/JPY topped out from March to June, a period over which many individual stocks … Read more

A Fresh Crack in the Stock Market’s Complacency

A Fresh Crack from the Currency Market At the time of writing, the Australian dollar versus the Japanese yen (AUD/JPY) is falling below its 50-day moving average (DMA) (the red line in the chart below) for the first time since last September. This move is the latest yellow, perhaps red, flag on the stock market … Read more

Market Crash 2020 Addendum

This post is a quick addendum to the Above the 40 post I published just ahead of a complete freefall in global financial markets. At the time of writing, futures are showing a 5% drop in the S&P 500 (SPY)! The crash is reflected in real-time in the currency markets. I actively watch the Australian … Read more