ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Housing Market Intro and Summary In my last Housing Market Review, I laid out the case for bracing for what 2023 would bring even as “faint signs of a bottoming for sentiment have started to appear.” The latest housing data and industry expectations suggest that the market is well-braced for 2023. The signs of bottoming … Read more
{This analysis was updated on January 1, 2025 with the latest data, more clarity, and some corrections. Please see “How Home Builder Stocks Trade In A Seasonal Pattern (2025 Update)“} Introduction The U.S. housing market follows a seasonal pattern. The spring selling season represents the year’s peak of home sales. During this time, households try … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary A continued respite from rising rates gave some breathing room for new home sales to stabilize in November while existing home sales continued to plunge with a dearth of inventory helping to suck air out of the room. Housing starts continued to plunge in parallel with home builder sentiment. However, … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary In my last Housing Market Review, I described how a housing recession was reflected in the worsening housing data, including the latest report on U.S. GDP. While new home sales made another surprise bounce in October, the rest of the housing data continued to worsen in the month. However, a … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary In my last Housing Market Review, I described the dynamics of a housing market trying to wait out this cycle of rising rates. Since then, ever higher mortgage rates continued their relentless and sharp uptrend. Accordingly, the pressures on the housing market simply increased further. The marks of a deepening … Read more