ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The British pound
Earlier this month, I used Google Trends to demonstrate that the currency market lagged a key shift in Brexit sentiment. Just 10 days later, interest (aka anxiety?) in Brexit, the prospect of a UK exit from the European Union (EU), has scaled new heights while the British pound (FXB) has hit new lows for the … Read more
Over the past two weeks or so, I have focused my currency trading on fading the British pound (FXB) and the Australian dollar (FXA). In “The Currency Market Is Lagging A Dramatic Shift in Brexit Sentiment,” I compared market sentiment versus the trading action and made the following claim (emphasis newly made): “If my interpretation … Read more
At least I expected to have a lot of commentary on the British pound going into the June 23rd referendum on the United Kingdom’s membership in the European Union (EU) aka “Brexit.” In the blink of an eye, the British pound soared against all major currencies.For emphasis, I show a 1-minute chart along side the … Read more
I have a feeling I will be writing about the British pound a lot more in the coming weeks leading into the June 23rd referendum on the UK’s membership in the European Union (EU), aka Brexit. Out the gate this week, the British pound (FXB) gapped down in early trading before the Asian open. This … Read more
In late February, I wrote “Forget The Yuan – The Devaluation Of The British Pound Is Breathtaking.” At the time, I suggested that Google Trends on the search term “Brexit” indicated that the breathtaking losses in the British pound should soon abate (against the U.S. dollar). Sure enough, the pound printed a bottom within a … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 1, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) After London’s former mayor Boris Johnson first announced his support for Great Britain’s exit from the European Union (EU), aka “Brexit,” the British pound (FXB) sold off for the rest of … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 24, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) Americans do not get to vote as a nation on anything unless it is something like American Idol or Dancing With the Stars; definitely nothing political. Our nation’s founders sought fit … Read more
In the previous week, forex traders extended existing positioning trends. This consistency reveals an on-going confidence in the given trends. Where these changes are consistent with currency moves, traders seem indeed justified in the confidence. However, there are some cases where these positions are starting to run counter to potential shifts in currencies. I expect … Read more
The Bank of England (BoE) released its latest pronouncement on monetary policy on April 14, 2016. As has been the case for what feels like forever now, the BoE kept policy the same with Bank rate at 0.5%, and it maintained the stock of purchased assets at £375 billion. The BoE concluded that the outlook … Read more
A bottom for the British pound just got more likely. The latest data from the CFTC shows that net speculators beat a major retreat from net short positions against the British pound: Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders The chart shows that speculators have not held such small net short positions since the surge began … Read more