Little New News from Jackson Hole But Market Readies for Action Anyway

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 3, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) “…the private sector’s revised outlook for the policy rate also appears to reflect a growing appreciation of how forceful the FOMC intends to be in supporting a sustainable recovery.” (Ben Bernanke … Read more

Monetary Easing, The Counterfactual, And A Lower Dollar In the Balance

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 11, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has made the case for further monetary easing simple and straightforward. Unless some miracle happens in the economy to send growth hurtling upward (presidential campaign promises, … Read more

T2108 Update (September 7, 2012) – New Bullish Phase Brings New Trading Strategy

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more

The Australian Dollar Clings to Breakout As Current Catalysts Support Upward Trend

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 2, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) On July 30th, the Australian dollar made a clean breakout against the U.S. dollar (FXA). At that time, I stated I was finally ready to reposition for what could be an … Read more

The Dollar’s Tumble Accompanies A Host of Critical Currency and Commodity Trades

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 1, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Thanks largely to the surging euro, the U.S. dollar index (UUP) took one of its nastiest one-day tumbles since last October, falling 1.3%. I believe this drop all but confirms staunch … Read more

T2108 Update (June 11, 2012) – False Hope and A Fade

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 24.2% VIX Status: 23.6 … Read more

T2108 Update (May 29, 2012) – Rising Stocks, Sinking Euro

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 29.6% (Last oversold period … Read more

Step Aside British Pound, The Japanese Yen Is Back As the Safety Currency Of Choice

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 20, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) I have written about my skepticism regarding the British pound’s newly found “safe haven” status (for example, see “Hard Currency: My Reactions To The Financial Times’ Promising Podcast“). During my last … Read more

Nassim Taleb Likes Euros And You Should Too

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 19, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) In November, 2010, Nassim Taleb (Mr. Black Swan) broke a long-standing media blackout to talk on CNBC about his distress over quantitative easing Part two (QE2). At the time, Taleb concluded … Read more