ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The following data cover the latest from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders as reported by Oanda from the week of from Monday, February 8, 2016. From Oanada: “The Commitments of Traders (COT) is a report issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It aggregates the holdings of participants in the U.S. futures markets (primarily … Read more
Currencies are a transmission mechanism. Since the financial crisis, central banks have become increasingly adept at manipulating them as agents of monetary policy. Traders who ignore currencies may have critical blindspots as stock markets twist and turn through currency transmissions. From time-to-time, I will post “Forex Critical” to highlight currency charts that I believe are … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
What a difference 19 months make. It was June, 2014 when Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney confidently warned financial markets that rate hikes could come earlier than implied at that time by the market. Less than a month later, the British pound (FXB) (or sterling) peaked against the U.S. dollar (DXY0). Peaks against … Read more
The U.S. jobs numbers for January, 2016 were good enough to send odds for the next rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve to jump across the scheduled meetings for 2016. Yet, the odds for December as the next month for a rate hike are still well under 50%. Source: CME Group FedWatch Although the … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 15, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) The recent movements in crude oil prices are very substantial in historical context. Headline inflation will return to target once oil prices stabilize, but recent further declines in global oil prices … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
I last wrote about cocoa in July, 2015 in a piece called “Even Cocoa Starts to Waver In the Face of the Collapse In Commodities.” I wrote that iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) had met my price target for selling, and I awaited my next entry point. I passed up two subsequent dips, but … Read more