Forex Critical: Speculators Ride the Wave Against the Japanese Yen

The Japanese yen (FXY) is the one major currency that has been notably weaker than the U.S. dollar for most of the past month. USD/JPY peaked in December, 2016, but it looks like the sell-off bottomed out in April. Source: FreeStockCharts.com This yen weakness has been particularly evident against strong currencies, like the euro (FXE), … Read more

Gold and Silver Speculators In Full Retreat

A year ago, speculators accumulated net long contracts on gold that exceeded anything seen since at least 2008. Starting in late 2015, silver speculators set several such records with the latest set just three months ago. Now, speculators in gold and silver are in full retreat. Net longs seem headed for zero for both precious … Read more

Forex Critical – Canadian Dollar: High Odds of Rate Hike Equal High Impact of Any Disappointment

Going into last week’s report on Canadian employment, currency speculators retreated further from what was a record net short position against the Canadian dollar (FXC) less than two months prior. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders This retreat is occurring in conjunction with a consistent strengthening in the Canadian dollar. For example, USD/CAD peaked in … Read more

Above the 40 (July 7, 2017) – Another Entry for Stock Market’s Yo-Yo Chronicles

AT40 = 54.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 56.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 11.2 (10.8% drop) (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Source: Giphy There are all sorts of nicknames possible for a churning market. In this edition of “Above … Read more

Forex Critical – Time to End Bearishness on the Australian Dollar

I have been bearish on the Australian dollar (FXA) for quite some time now. My main driver was a reversal in fortunes for soaring iron ore prices that in turn weighed down the currency. Iron ore prices rebounded so much since hitting one-year lows last month that the raw ingredient for steel is now technically … Read more

Forex Critical: A Sweet Spot for the Mexican Peso

Just as I had hoped and anticipated, the Banco de Mexico hiked its interest rate to 7.0% on June 22nd and kept pace with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate hike. Apparently, this rate hike was not a news flash. According to Reuters, the consensus opinion also anticipated a rate hike: “Analysts expected Mexico would match … Read more

Forex Critical: A Major Breakthrough Eluded Mexican Peso Bulls

Bulls in the Mexican peso successfully reversed all the post-election gains in USD/MXN. Yet they failed to hold onto a big break through when USD/MXN hit a new 6-month low last week. Buyers quickly stepped in and sent USD/MXN right back to its declining 50-day moving average (DMA). Source: FreeStockCharts.com The latest CFTC data on … Read more

Forex Critical: Speculators Retreat from the Australian Dollar and Pound, Expand on the Euro and Canadian Dollar

The latest CFTC data on the Commitments of Traders (CoT) shows some important moves in the positioning of speculators. Australian dollar (FXA) While the price of iron ore plunged, bullishness on the Australian dollar (FXA) remained surprisingly strong. I am almost equally surprised to see this bullishness now in full scale retreat as iron ore … Read more

Forex Critical: A Breakdown for the U.S. Dollar

I may have flipped outright bearish on the U.S. dollar index (DXY0) just in time. My change in sentiment started with my increasing bullishness on the euro (FXE). With the euro constituting about 51% of the U.S. dollar index, I realized that it would be hard to remain bullish on the dollar overall while adopting … Read more

Forex Critical: Speculators In the Euro Last Did This Three Years Ago

Ahead of the second and final round of the French Presidential election, I noted a burst of euro-optimism. That optimism continued in the form of speculators turning net bullish on the euro for the first time in three years. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders While this flip from bearish to bullish for the first … Read more