ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
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The Bank of Canada changed its tune from the its last pronouncement on monetary policy. At that time, the Bank was very confident about the Canadian economy even as it mapped out the downside risks of the U.S. vs China Trade War. The Trade War remains unresolved three months later, and the Bank of Canada … Read more
“It would be a difficult place for policy, and my sense is that the markets are not really onto the complexity of it. It seems a little too easy that ‘Oh. Interest rates could decline and that will make everything OK.’ That may be true for the small kind of shocks that we’ve had so … Read more
The Bank of Canada released its latest pronouncement on monetary policy on the heels of a rapid rally for the Canadian dollar (FXC). USD/CAD was down 5 straight days going into the release of the January, 2019 Monetary Policy Report. Four of five of those days delivered substantial declines. The Bank provided a truncated summary … Read more
I completely missed how the Bank of Canada (BoC) was deftly tempering its rate hike designs with a claim that the Canadian economy still needs more accommodation. For example, in April’s statement on monetary policy, the BoC said the following (emphasis mine): “Some progress has been made on the key issues being watched closely by … Read more
Last June, 2017, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada (BoC) Carolyn A. Wilkins stepped onto the stage with a surprisingly bullish message about the Canadian economy. This speech set the stage for the BoC’s rollback of “emergency measure” rate cuts that responded to the past collapse in oil prices. At the time, the … Read more
Last week, financial markets were abuzz with rumors that Canada was preparing for the U.S. to exit NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement. No official statement ever emerged and within three trading days the entire impact of the scare reversed. For example, the rumors weakened the Canadian dollar (FXC) significantly against the U.S. dollar … Read more
The Canadian dollar (FXC) is at an interesting juncture. Strong economic data has strengthened the currency but the Bank of Canada (BoC) has applied brakes on currency’s rally. The Canadian dollar weakened in the wake of policy statements in October and December. The last word of 2017 went to the economic data as hot inflation … Read more
Central banks are getting pretty good at having it both ways. Despite two rate hikes, one in July and one in September, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has talked its way to a net no change in the Canadian dollar (FXC) versus the U.S. dollar (DXY0). Source: FreeStockCharts.com As the chart above shows, the Canadian … Read more
There is nothing like a significantly stronger currency to get central banks to take pause. I cannot recall in recent memory a time where a little known (or under-appreciated?) Deputy Director of the Bank of Canada made a notable impact on the Canadian dollar. Such an event occurred on Monday, September 18th. Deputy Director Timothy … Read more
I greatly under-estimated the confidence of the Bank of Canada (BoC) when I mapped out the possibilities for a currency market that highly anticipated a rate hike from the Bank. In its latest statement on monetary policy, the BoC increased its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 0.75%. The Bank … Read more