ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
It turns out that the lower lows I noted in T2108, the percentage of stocks that are trading above their 40-day moving averages (DMAs), were indeed leading to at least one more lower low. T2108 fell dramatically today, from 48% yesterday to 23% today. This breaks the July lows as well as the series of … Read more
The last hour of trading on Wednesday was marred by swift, high-volume selling, an extremely rare sight in the current market. It seemed to come from “nowhere” but the signs of some kind of reversal have been building in some poor post-earnings trading in many big-cap names. I earlier pointed out that Intel (INTC) seems … Read more
The excitement over Intel’s Q3 earnings report has already worn off. After peaking as high as $21.60 or so in the immediate aftermath of the release (after hours trading), Intel (INTC) dropped as low as $20 today. While this is just a small amount below the pre-earnings close of $20.49, this drop has still created … Read more
I have not reviewed T2108, the percentage of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average (DMA), or its close cousin T2107, the percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day moving average, since late April (click here for the review). For most of the intervening weeks and months, the message has remained the same: over-bought and … Read more
Intel (INTC) delivered a stellar earnings report Tuesday evening with revenues and margins that beat expectations. However, do not expect an encore in the near-term because INTC’s historical performance suggests this may be as good as it gets for a while. Q3 revenues were $9.4B with consensus expectations for $9.04B. The 17% sequential growth in … Read more
Just thinking about writing this piece makes me cringe. After celebrating gold’s fresh 18-month highs yesterday, it occurred to me that I need to review my biggest whiff of this year: Goldman Sachs (GS), affectionately called “Government Sachs.” I could just as easily call this one “how I missed out on at least 900% returns.” … Read more
Last week, I noticed media headlines screaming the horrible news that “Crude steel output in 2009 to hit lowest level in 40 years.” As I searched for the direct source of this quote from Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI), I stumbled upon its “Preliminary Report on Iron and Steel, Non-ferrous metal, and … Read more
Toward the end of September, I argued that VXX, the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures, was making a bottom. While some kind of bottom has been confirmed with the spike in volatility last week, the VXX has proved to be a dud in following this spike. While the VIX has popped about 29% from … Read more
We have all heard the claims that traders take the summer off, choosing to exchange their flashing computers for the calm, cool breezes of the beaches of the Hamptons, Martha’s Vineyard, etc… Yet, year after year, it has appeared to me that summers deliver plenty of noteworthy trading action. I finally decided to take a … Read more
Today has been a wild day in the financial markets, and I almost hesitate to jot down my thoughts before the close of trading. However, I will be shutting things down to get the weekend started as soon as possible, so I am writing now while thoughts remain fresh. There is no one theme I … Read more