ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The Swiss franc is back to all-time highs against the euro, and the extrapolations have begun. This morning, Bloomberg reports that UBS expects the franc to remain strong for the entire decade: “The Swiss franc will stay strong and investors should hold it as a proxy for the old German deutsche mark as the currency … Read more
The U.S. dollar index has made little progress since its tremendous one-day rally over two weeks ago. Over the past week, the dollar index has stalled out right at its 50-day moving average (DMA). [Click for larger view] *Chart created using TeleChart: I set my plan at this point to dial my positions to net … Read more
We finally got the news on INTC that the market appears to have long anticipated. This morning, Intel (INTC) lowered revenue and margin guidance. Revenue guidance is now “…$11.0 billion, plus or minus $200 million, compared to the previous expectation of between $11.2 and $12.0 billion.” Margin guidance is “…now 66 percent, plus or minus … Read more
It seems the market is adjusting to the high potential on Friday morning for a significant revision to second quarter U.S. GDP. The consensus forecast appears to be a revision from 2.4% to 1.4% with a “whisper” number as low as 1.0% “anecdotally” based on watching and reading various bearish pundits. Since failing to break … Read more
After tumbling hard last week out of severely overbought conditions (T2108 is now at a comfortably neutral 55%), the S&P 500’s slide has slowed against what looks like a sludge of apathy. Volume has quickly dried up since last Wednesday’s 2.8% loss and now stochastics suggest the S&P 500 is oversold. I suspect the stock … Read more
The Swiss franc almost got lost in the wake of the U.S. dollar’s tremendously sharp relief rally from support. In the last week, the franc has reasserted its dominance after experiencing an entire month of rare weakness. The daily chart of the euro vs. the franc (EUR/CHF) below demonstrates the sharp reversal that punctuates the … Read more
The British pound has been on a fascinating and very bullish ride versus the U.S. dollar. On Thursday, the pound accentuated its action by perfectly tagging the lower part of its bullish channel directly above support at the 200-day moving average (DMA). (Click for larger view) Source: dailyfx.com charts (click for larger view) I redrew … Read more
The extended downtrend in the Brazilian ETF, EWZ, remains intact. In particular, over the past 10 months, EWZ has made lower highs and lower lows. The gap up in the beginning of August marked the end of the last rally as it was stopped cold at the resistance from the downtrend line. The weekly chart … Read more
It took a little over a week, but Intel (INTC) finally succumbed to the anticipated retest of the old downtrend line (click for a larger view). *Chart created using TeleChart: Multiple catalysts seemed to weigh down on INTC on Tuesday: Taiwanese manufacturers of notebooks reported large drops in sales and Quanta warned it will not … Read more
The recent descent in the U.S. dollar continues nearly unabated. Even as I pointed out the importance of the 200-day moving average (DMA) for the U.S. dollar, deep, deep down inside I felt the U.S. dollar would finally put up a fight at this key support level. The trends that have brought us to this … Read more