Deciphering the Bearish Case: Is it Time to Short ITB?

Uptrend in ITB: An Observation of 20-Day and 50-Day Moving Averages The calendar for the seasonal trade in home builders has come to an end. Yet, the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) looks as strong as ever. The uptrend in ITB is well-defined by a primary uptrend in the 20-day moving average (DMA) (the … Read more

Stocks Wake Up With Key Breakouts – The Market Breadth

wake up with breakouts (Credit: My cat's waking up by jestersgrin on Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary: What was quiet in the prior week is now loud and clear. Led by the NASDAQ, the stock market is in breakout mode. While market breadth is not quite endorsing the move, key breakouts are showing up in the indices and individual stocks. The inability of sellers to take advantage of bad … Read more

The NASDAQ Quietly Tries to Wake Up A Sleepy Market – The Market Breadth

sleepy market (Credit: Stretch Cat by RafeB on Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary: The U.S.’s looming debt ceiling crisis is a manufactured emergency. The whole political wrangling could end in an instant with a very simple decision to keep budget negotiations in the budget process. Thus, the stock market’s relative calm about the political stalemate does not surprise me. Moreover, who are the motivated sellers … Read more

Apple Drags A Mixed-Up Market Higher – The Market Breadth

apple drags (Credit: astronomy_blog on Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary: In the previous week, the stock market put on a display of strength ahead of the Federal Reserve’s May decision on monetary policy. That bravado was temporarily undermined by the final blow to First Republic Bank (FRC). After a one-day pause, presumably to contemplate the implications of the lack of a coherent … Read more

Solid Spring Demand Brings A Bullish Reversal and All-Time Highs – The Housing Market Review

bullish reversal new home sales and construction (Credit: Wonderlane on Flickr)

Housing Market Intro and Summary The fresh hope from a peak in mortgage rates has expanded into an ever stronger spring selling season for the housing market. Despite double digit year-over-year declines keeping existing home sales and housing starts in recessions, new home sales have almost reversed all their losses since the Fed started hiking … Read more

New Display of Strength Dares Fed’s Hawkishness – The Market Breadth

display of strength (Credit: Boston Library on Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary: On a weekly basis, the stock market seems to flip its abiding theme. One week after I accused the stock market of sleepwalking, buyers roused the major indices out of their slumber with a new and sudden display of strength. A 13.9% post-earnings surge from Meta Platforms, Inc (META) seemed to set … Read more

“How to Buy Gold”: New Google Trends Indicator for Sentiment?

how to buy gold (Credit: Tessa Sheremeta on Flickr)

I used the Google Trends Momentum Check (GTMC) for gold as a relatively reliable indicator for trading sentiment on the precious metal until around 2016. After that year, Google trends for the term “gold” essentially flatlined. When gold went parabolic to start 2022, the GTMC for “gold” failed to trigger. The extremes in search interest … Read more

Wake Me Once the Market’s Sleepwalking Ends – The Market Breadth

sleepwalking (Credit: Photocapy on Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary: The no worries stock market is sleepwalking its way through April. The major indices are stuck in tight ranges near or at key technical resistance and support levels. Yet, market breadth remains relatively low as many of the big market leaders hold up the tent. Meandering economic data induces some of this … Read more

No Worries As Volatility Rewinds to the Start of 2022 – The Market Breadth

no worries (Credit: david-o.net on Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary: Last week I described how to reconcile a stock market that was both complacent and oversold. The stock market proceeded from there to double down on complacency while rebounding from “close enough to oversold” levels for market breadth. Traders are showing no worries as the volatility index (VIX) plunged to levels last … Read more

Riding the Bitcoin Trend: Buy-the-Dip Strategy for BTC/USD

On Friday, September 7, at 9:30 a.m., a parachute test for a future mission to Mars successfully launched on a NASA Black Brant IX suborbital sounding rocket from Wallops Flight Facility. The rocket carried the Advanced Supersonic Parachute Inflation Research Experiment (ASPIRE) from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California. The payload is a bullet-nosed, cylindrical structure holding a supersonic parachute, the parachute's deployment mechanism, and the test's high-definition instrumentation, including cameras, to record data. The payload descended by parachute and splashed-down in the Atlantic Ocean 28 miles from Wallops Island. The parachute was successfully recovered and returned to Wallops for data retrieval and inspection.

Bitcoin Uptrend Analysis The trend is a friend for Bitcoin (BTC/USD) again. All three of the major moving averages are pointing upward for Bitcoin. This synchronization of the 20-day moving average (DMA), 50DMA, and the 200DMA supports a buy-the-dip strategy after the big March breakout in the wake of the banking Panic of 2023. Assuming … Read more