Fed Minutes Put A Bow On Earlier Fedspeak on Rate Hikes

“Most participants judged that if incoming data were consistent with economic growth picking up in the second quarter, labor market conditions continuing to strengthen, and inflation making progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective, then it likely would be appropriate for the Committee to increase the target range for the federal funds rate in June…Some … Read more

T2108 Update (April 20, 2016) – Stock Breakouts and Market Lift-Off

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (February 24, 2016) – Buyers Stage A Notable Reversal As the JP Morgan Bottom Holds

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

ConocoPhillips: A Cautionary Tale from the Oil Patch

ConocoPhillips (COP) announced Q4 and full year 2015 financial results on the morning of February 4, 2016. The news included a capitulation to the on-going deterioration of business conditions in the oil patch: COP slashed its dividend by two-thirds: “ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) today announced it is taking actions to maintain its strong balance sheet in … Read more

Bullard Helps Push Out the Next Rate Hike Further Into the Year

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 15, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) The recent movements in crude oil prices are very substantial in historical context. Headline inflation will return to target once oil prices stabilize, but recent further declines in global oil prices … Read more