An Upbeat Reserve Bank of Australia Stays Downbeat On Interest Rates

In its February decision on interest rates, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) issued a surprisingly upbeat and rosy assessment of economic conditions in Australia. Outside of mining, I daresay economic conditions look particularly promising: “In Australia, the available information suggests that the expansion in the non-mining parts of the economy strengthened during 2015 even … Read more

T2108 Update (January 29, 2016) – An Impressive End to A Historic Oversold Period…With Caveats

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Bullard Helps Push Out the Next Rate Hike Further Into the Year

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 15, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) The recent movements in crude oil prices are very substantial in historical context. Headline inflation will return to target once oil prices stabilize, but recent further declines in global oil prices … Read more

Rate Hike Relief Paves the Way for A Stronger Dollar And A December Bottom for Stocks

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 17, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Federal Reserve could not have asked for a better response to its first rate hike in 9 years and first move off zero interest rates in 7 years. The Fed … Read more

The Bank of Canada Avoids the “R” Word

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 14, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) As expected, the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged in its latest decision on monetary policy (September 9, 2015). Also as expected, the Bank did not interpret recent GDP data as … Read more