ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Last week, I claimed that the deeply oversold conditions presented a short-term buying opportunity, but that the downward trend in the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) and 200DMAs (T2108 and T2107) pointed to a steadily weakening market in the near future. I expected sellers to step up at the … Read more
Currencies swung wildly and dramatically yesterday. Lost in the breathless descriptions of the continued surge in the US dollar and the sudden strength in the Japanese yen is that the drama really began with renewed strength in the Swiss franc. At around 5am Eastern, the franc suddenly surged against all currencies. In particular, it traded … Read more
On April 1, 2010, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) apparently intervened to arrest the appreciation of its currency against the euro, and I wondered whether this action would be as futile as all the other interventions this year. So far, so good for the SNB, as the previously persistent buyers of Swiss francs have all … Read more
The bottom in Toyota’s stock is looking more and more firm. As U.S. auto and truck sales rose 24.3% year-over-year in March, Toyota soared 40.7% on the wings of an intensive ad campaign and generous sales incentives. While one can argue that Toyota bought future sales, these numbers remain astounding in light of the recent … Read more
Looks like the Swiss National Bank (SNB) tried to have the last laugh on this April Fool’s Day with another attempt to arrest the appreciation in its currency. This intervention was impressive with a 240 pip pop (2.3% move overall), but it only brought the currency back to last week’s trading levels. Source: dailyfx.com charts … Read more
Sometimes you can be smarter than the market – most times you cannot. When someone, or some institution insists on trading in one direction, you are usually smart to hop aboard or just get out of the way. These are two time-tested lessons I chose to ignore in playing the Swiss franc in anticipation of … Read more
I continue to read that the Swiss franc has been gaining on the euro because of the euro’s weakness. This observation appears correct when reviewing the euro’s slide against the dollar since early December (EUR/USD) and the parallel appreciation in the franc versus the euro (EUR/CHF). Yet, the euro has essentially stabilized versus the dollar … Read more
No new news in the Bank of Canada’s decision to maintain its overnight rate target at 0.25% and to start increasing this rate at the end of next quarter. The Bank of Canada continues to lament the stubborn strength of its currency despite these rock-bottom rates: “…the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar and the … Read more
In the past two years or so, I have often marveled at how differently the U.S. markets react from Asian and European markets when it comes to “bad” news released overnight (Eastern time). I do not yet have formal data or analysis, but I wanted to share some informal, personal observations. During the market recovery … Read more
The Australian dollar is my favorite currency. I have remained very bearish on the British pound since first writing about the currency last September (yes, there actually IS a currency I dislike more than the U.S. dollar!). For whatever reason, it only recently occurred to me to pull up a long-term chart comparing these two … Read more