Using the Fed’s Report On Economic Well-Being To Gauge Prospects for the Housing Market

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 2, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) On May 27th, the Federal Reserve Board published the second annual results of its Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED). {snip} Based on the Fed’s survey results, I concluded that … Read more

Trying Not to Outsmart the Dollar Trend

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 31, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} This quote was buried in footnote #14 of Janet Yellen’s speech at a research conference called “The New Normal Monetary Policy” sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. … Read more

A Case for News Sensitivity and Unreliable Liquidity As Early Warning Signs from Markets

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 16, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Central bankers continue to warn financial markets to properly price in risk. On March 13th, Chris Salmon, the Executive Director of Markets at the Bank of England (BoE) continued the … Read more

Jobs Numbers Underline Echo Dovish Canadian Monetary Policy, Halting Rally in Canadian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 12, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Ever since the Federal Reserve decision on monetary policy on March 19th, the Canadian dollar (FXC) has staged a strong recovery, increasing about 3.4% over that time. Canada’s weak employment report … Read more

T2108 Update (July 14, 2014) – Bear Whiplash

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more