ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The pre-earnings trade on Apple (AAPL) unfolded exactly opposite of expectations. The model pointed bearishly, but AAPL ended the day with a very impressive 4.2% pop that placed it right back where it closed on Friday’s impressive rally. Source: FreeStockCharts.com This particular pre-earnings trade turned out to have too many moving parts and caveats. I … Read more
It was fun while it lasted. The trades I described in coal in the wake of news of investments by George Soros seem to be coming to a decisive end. The recent bottoms have not yet given way but seems sure to do so in the coming days or weeks. Arch Coal (ACI) has swung … Read more
Last week, I updated the data on the Apple (AAPL) pre-earnings trade in a piece called “The Apple Pre-Earnings Trade: October, 2015 Edition – An Important Juncture.” I concluded that the main trade for AAPL going into earnings October 27, 2015 is to fade the 7-day average daily price change. Not including today (the 27th), … Read more
At the timing of writing, Apple (AAPL) is up 0.6% for the year, essentially flat. When I last wrote about the Apple pre-earnings trade back in January, I looked back at the December 1, 2014 “flash dip” in AAPL’s stock as a lingering harbinger of more selling to come. As it turned out, AAPL sold … Read more
When Meritage Homes (MTH) lowered guidance on September 9, 2015, the nation’s seventh largest homebuilder blamed several factors: A delay in closing homes. This was the most concerning explanation because the company provided no further details on it. Increased labor costs. These costs impacted margins. The problem was particularly acute in MTH’s major markets of … Read more