A Hypothesis for the Connection Between the Australian Dollar and the S&P 500

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 20, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) A reader recently asked the following questions in response to my last piece on the relationship between the Australian dollar and the S&P 500 (“A Bearish Divergence As Australian Dollar Stalls … Read more

From Bearish Divergence to Bearish Convergence

The Australian dollar (FXA) continues to provide a useful leading indicator of the likely direction of the S&P 500 from day-to-day and week-to-week. After pointing out the signs of a bearish divergence on Thursday, August 16th, a notable bearish divergence opened between the S&P 500 and the Australian dollar the following day. The Australian dollar … Read more

The Reserve Bank of Australia Declares Soft-Landing In China, Focuses On Europe

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 7, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The immediate response to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest monetary policy decision was muted, but I think the statement spoke volumes. The RBA essentially declared a soft economic landing in … Read more

Another Important Breakout for the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 5, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Japanese yen was the last remaining currency to “hold out” against the Australian dollar’s recent advances. On Friday, the AUD/JPY currency pair jumped again off its 200-day moving average (DMA) … Read more

Apple’s Important Macro and Forex Calls and Likely Post-Earnings Recovery

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 29, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Like all companies with extensive international presence, Apple took a hit from the strong dollar (UUP)… {snip} Apple appears to expect continued strength in the U.S. dollar as the company … Read more