Plunge In Australia’s Trade Balance Could Mean Weaker Dollar Ahead

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 2, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) I was just getting accustomed to the idea that iron ore prices could plunge without impacting the Australian dollar (FXA). Now comes a surprisingly large plunge in Australia’s trade balance. On … Read more

Glenn Stevens Takes Direct Aim At Market Complacency On the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 6, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Governor Glenn Stevens of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has finally returned to jawboning as a method for cajoling currency traders to sell the Australian dollar (FXA). On July 3rd, … Read more

Australia’s Central Bank Is Not Overly Concerned With Having One of the Most Expensive Housing Markets In the World

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 6, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The IMF recently established an informative web site called “Global Housing Watch” that promises to provide quarterly updates on housing conditions around the world. The update for Q4 of 2013 shows … Read more

Monetary Policy On Cruise Control in Australia

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 6, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Reserve Bank of Australia seems to have abandoned efforts to push the Australian dollar (FXA) around. The latest monetary decision contained no surprises and looked like a near carbon copy … Read more

Increasing Unemployment, Decreasing Commodity Prices Portend Jawboning By the Reserve Bank of Australia

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 13, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) So much for a trough in unemployment in Australia. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) produced another poor employment report. In January, Australia lost another 3,700 jobs, and the number of … Read more

All the Reserve Bank of Australia Has Left Is Jawboning

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 4, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) made it official: the low interest rate cycle has reached a trough. In its latest Monetary Policy Decision on February 4th, the RBA concluded (emphasis … Read more

China PMI Fallout Takes Down Australian Dollar Even As Rate Expectations Stay Steady

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 27, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) It looks like the rate implications of creeping inflation in Australia still outweigh disappointing job news and the latest China PMI reading. The market’s odds for a rate reduction dropped from … Read more

Q4 2013 Inflation Reading Removes Australia’s Scope For Lower Rates

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 22, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Remember last September when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) somewhat mysteriously removed the following language from its statement on monetary policy?… “The Board also judged that the inflation outlook, as … Read more

Poor Jobs Report Breaks Down Australian Dollar But Is THIS the Trough?

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 13, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported a loss of 22,600 jobs for December, 2013 while consensus expectations were for a GAIN of 10,000 jobs. The economy lost 31,600 full-time jobs … Read more

Australian Dollar Starts the Year with A Bias for Bottoming

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 2, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The ASX (Australian Stock Exchange) tracker for rate expectations dropped further to start the new year. The RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) Rate Tracker dropped the odds of a rate decrease … Read more