ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
A catalyst for working off the market’s over-extended and over-bought conditions remains elusive. The Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy statement essentially blessed the market’s stubborn “melt-up.” The statement did not provide the incremental “hawkishness” as I was expecting given last month’s surprise discount rate hike. In fact, this statement’s reference to low rates for an … Read more
Loans Going Bad Faster Than the Fixes – CNBC The good news is the pace of loan deterioration is slowing. The bad news is we are still seeing record high delinquencies, and new delinquencies are outpacing loss mitigation efforts. (tags: mortgage foreclosure) Why Applied Materials Should Curb its Solar Plans : Greentech Media In the past few … Read more
Just over a month has elapsed since I concluded that S&P 500 was reaching a short-term bottom but would not challenge its 52-week highs (set in January) for “many months to come.” On Thursday, the S&P 500 printed a new 52-week closing high by one penny. On Friday, the index made a new intra-day high … Read more
Pound Bears Bet More Than When George Soros Beat BOE (Update2) – BusinessWeek Futures traders are more bearish than ever on sterling amid concern that the currency’s worst annual start in 13 years will continue as the U.K.’s budget deficit approaches the Greek shortfall that roiled the euro. Wagers on the pound weakening against the … Read more
I continue to read that the Swiss franc has been gaining on the euro because of the euro’s weakness. This observation appears correct when reviewing the euro’s slide against the dollar since early December (EUR/USD) and the parallel appreciation in the franc versus the euro (EUR/CHF). Yet, the euro has essentially stabilized versus the dollar … Read more
Middle Class Money Angst Still Apparent in Data In all, the latest Fed Flow of Funds data suggest that, to the extent middle class Americans' finances are improving, it's because their liabilities are being reduced by default. The gains in asset values are being concentrated by those so-called households with the ways and means to … Read more
In her Nightly Business Report blog, Terri Cullen summarizes the potential economic impact of Toyota’s problems in “Toyota Recalls and the Economy.” In this article, Cullens suggests that what is bad for Toyota (TM) might be good for the U.S.: “The Toyota recalls may turn out to have a positive impact on the U.S. auto … Read more
Although the S&P 500 almost touched its high for the year on its eighth up day out of the last nine trading days, the VIX (the volatility index) increased almost 4%. So, as the S&P 500 scrapes at fresh 18-month highs, the VIX is bouncing from 21-month lows. The chart below shows the current action … Read more
Extended Interview – George Papaconstantinou, Greece's Finance Minister | Nightly Business Report | PBS In tonight's program, NBR's Darren Gersh talks with George Papaconstantinou, Greece's Minister of Finance, about his nation's debt crisis. Mr. Papaconstantinou talks about the role speculators have played in destabilizing the Greek economy, and he also talks about whether the crisis … Read more
IMAX sold off almost 10% the day after heavy bullish trading on the stock’s options. This setback proved temporary as IMAX immediately turned around and set fresh 10-year highs on Monday. The chart below shows the recent action: *Chart created using TeleChart: The payoff on the calls has been tremendous so far. The March 15 … Read more