ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
I thought it would be fitting to close out another year of blog posts to celebrate the performance of one of my favorite investments: the Australian dollar. Despite beginning the week with another round of tightening by Chinese monetary authorities, the Australian dollar put on another stellar show. The “Aussie” closed the week up over … Read more
Bond market may signal US financial crisis to come – Bill Fleckenstein I am becoming more convinced that the various elements of a funding crisis will be picking up the pace and intensity sooner, rather than later, and they may well be the most important factors to consider with regard to investment decisions in 2011. … Read more
Last week, I claimed that the market is not yet overbought and that any corrections in the short-term will most likely be shallow. Without some specific and new catalyst, traders and investors, especially the ones who missed this latest rally, will treat pullbacks as golden buying opportunities. Moreover, I noted how, as expected, many analysts … Read more
I have seen and heard several headlines pronouncing that the market is overbought, extremely overbought even. Yet, my favorite oversold/overbought indicator, T2108, the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), has calmly churned around 60% for almost the entire month of December. The market is typically considered overbought after T2108 crosses … Read more
Another earnings-related presentation, another yawn from the stock market – such is the life of First Solar (FSLR). On December 14, First Solar hosted a conference call to discuss its guidance for 2011. Overall, it was a relatively bullish call. However, the stock had rallied over 10% into the call and, presumably, expectations were high. … Read more
Lately, it seems I have been pointing out more and more stocks in breakout formations. It makes the skeptic in me a little wary and nervous, but I will keep rolling with what works. And steel stocks have finally started working over the past month. I have to assume that the market is seeking out … Read more
Last week, I mentioned that I had not yet decided on my re-entry strategy for gold and silver. I remain in neutral as gold, silver, and the dollar index churn in various holding patterns (using GLD and SLV as proxies for gold and silver respectively). GLD is right where it was two months ago. SLV … Read more
When Bill Gross declared a top in the bond market, MUB, the iShares S&P National Municipal Bond ETF, was still riding high between $105 and $106. Almost three weeks later, MUB cratered to 16-month lows, loudly declaring that the gravy train in munis had likely ended. Over the course of the past month, MUB experienced … Read more
As the stock market continues its slow and steady creep upward, individual stocks experiencing technical breakouts are providing strong relative performance. Last week, I noted that U.S. Steel finally broke above its 200-day moving average (DMA), and it continues to barrel upward. On Tuesday, I took particular interest in three other potentially important breakouts: Whirlpool … Read more
EARLY LOOK: Mandelbrot Math (Hedgeye Blog) Altogether, if you take the beginning and end of 2010, you can draw plenty of conclusions that are now crystal clear. From my global macro model’s vantage point, the deep simplicity of all of these global macro factors and what they mean prospectively to the global markets remains as … Read more