T2108 Update (June 15, 2012) – From Alarm to the Edge of A Breakout

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 33.5% VIX Status: 21.1 … Read more

Chart Review: Australian Dollar Reaches for A Breakout

On Friday, the Australian dollar (FXA) enjoyed continued strength as financial markets rallied strongly into the close ahead of Sunday’s potential turmoil with Greek elections. Just two days ago, I wrote that I switched back to a bearish stance on AUD/USD after it reached my relief rally target of parity. I also said that “I … Read more

Australian Dollar Hits Relief Rally Target But Bearish Trend Remains Intact

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 14, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last week, the Australian dollar (FXA) took a rest from its longest post-recession sell-off (3+ months and running). Good economic numbers with surging GDP and surprisingly strong job creation forced traders … Read more

It Is Not Over Until the Fat Franc Flies?

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 11, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) As global financial markets seem set to rally in a reflex “risk on” reaction to the bailout of Spain’s banks, one small corner of the financial universe remains notably somber: the … Read more

Hedge with HDGE for the Long-Term, SDS for the Short-Term

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 11, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Now that the stock market seems set to continue next week’s rally thanks to the multi-billion bailout of Spain’s banks, it makes sense to consider (or review) hedges for the summer … Read more

San Juan Basin’s Plunge to Historic Lows Looks Like An Opportunity for the Patient

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 11, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) In several past pieces on natural gas this year (for example, “Exports Of Liquefied Natural Gas Add To Evidence Of Bottoming Natural Gas Prices“), I have offered San Juan Basin Royalty … Read more

British Pound Surges Into Resistance – Buy Dips As Government and Bank of England Try To Ease Credit Crunch

After failing to to topple over the 1.56 level over the past week, the British pound finally made a major breakthrough today against the U.S. dollar (FXB). This surge takes GBP/USD takes the currency pair right into the teeth of resistance from declining 50 and 200-day moving averages. Source: FreeStockCharts.com I think this resistance will … Read more

T2108 Update (June 14, 2012) – High Stakes

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 29% VIX Status: 21.7 … Read more

Chart Review: Amazon Triggers Post-Earnings Short

On May 18th, I wrote that Amazon.com (AMZN) had triggered a post-earnings short by closing below the low of trading in the immediate aftermath of the last earnings report (at $220). However, I did not recommend pulling the trigger because the market was oversold at the time. Surprisingly, AMZN did not benefit from the market’s … Read more

So Far, Facebook IPO Has Had No Significant Impact On Housing Market Near HQ

Last week, Zillow (Z) published an infographic on its blog site purportedly describing the impact of the Facebook (FB) IPO on home listings in the local neighborhood of its Menlo Park headquarters (see “Millionaire’s Row: How Did Facebook’s IPO Affect Silicon Valley Real Estate?“). The summary caught my attention: “To illustrate the Valley’s real estate … Read more