Rich Valuations Mean Fastenal Has Likely Peaked Short-Term, Buy On Lower Prices

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 18, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.)

On June 5, 2012, Fastenal (FAST) dropped 9.8% in response to its May sales report. This sharply negative reaction got my attention because Fastenal’s industrial and construction supplies business should be highly sensitive to the health of the overall economy…{snip}

{snip} FAST is the kind of stock you want to own in a long-term portfolio. {snip}


FAST has a very enviable multi-decade performance
FAST has a very enviable multi-decade performance

{snip} FAST is now down 27.5% from its all-time high and is down 9.2% for the year.


FAST is breaking down in the short-term
FAST is breaking down in the short-term

It turns out that the market has reacted poorly to FAST’s last three reports including an earnings report. {snip}


Price Response to Fastenal's Sales Reports Since January, 2011
Price Response to Fastenal's Sales Reports Since January, 2011

Source: Report dates from Fastenal web site, stock prices from Yahoo!Finance

Moreover, fellow parts supplier W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW) has fallen in sympathy with FAST. {snip}


W.W. Grainger fails to sustain a comeback from its sympathetic trade with FAST's malaise
W.W. Grainger fails to sustain a comeback from its sympathetic trade with FAST's malaise

Source for charts: FreeStockCharts.com

FAST’s valuation is also very high, especially for a stock with declining sales growth trends. {snip} The red horizontal lines in the charts below represent current valuations.


Comparison of FAST's current valuation with 10-year annual averages
Comparison of FAST's current valuation with 10-year annual averages

Source: MSN Money Ten-Year Summary for FAST

FAST’s drop has yet to attract the attention of short sellers. In fact, shorts have been pulling away from FAST since last October. {snip}


Shorts continue to flee from FAST
Shorts continue to flee from FAST

Source: NASDAQ short interest for FAST

So where does this all put FAST? In the short-term, I think it is very likely to lose more value as valuations get shaved closer to historical norms. {snip}

Be careful out there!

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 18, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.)

Full disclosure: no positions

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