ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Since the year 2000, delivering a different narrative for students and fans of financial markets: stocks, options, currencies, Bitcoin, and more…
For 14 months the S&P 500 has trended upward from the March lows. However, with the S&P 500 now down 3.9% for the year, the last 8 of these 14 months have produced no net gain in the index. Another 3% drop will produce the first lower low on the index since July, 2009. The … Read more
The percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages, T2108, closed at 19%, below the 20% threshold that indicates an oversold stock market. The stock market has reached these levels only one other time since the March, 2009 lows – this was in February when the market last cared about the sovereign debt … Read more
Last week, I claimed that the deeply oversold conditions presented a short-term buying opportunity, but that the downward trend in the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) and 200DMAs (T2108 and T2107) pointed to a steadily weakening market in the near future. I expected sellers to step up at the … Read more
“…I stick by the rule that low-volume buying begets high-volume selling; weeks of gains can be erased within a manner of days once sellers finally get motivated.” This quote came from my commentary in late March titled “Some Lazy Thoughts for a Complacent Market“. At the time, I was reacting to the extreme overbought technical … Read more
The financial markets finally got a bailout package for Greece – and they vigorously sold off on the news. (Yes, there are plenty of other negatives out there as well…all ignored until now). The good news is that the S&P 500 remains higher than it was back in January when the stock market last cared … Read more
Ever since moving this site to a more standard blog format last September, I have been able to write more articles, more consistently. In that time, I hope I have delivered some value to those listening out there in the blogosphere. Now, it is time for a partial hiatus as I attend to personal and … Read more
Although the S&P 500 almost touched its high for the year on its eighth up day out of the last nine trading days, the VIX (the volatility index) increased almost 4%. So, as the S&P 500 scrapes at fresh 18-month highs, the VIX is bouncing from 21-month lows. The chart below shows the current action … Read more
The stock market’s bounce from oversold conditions has been as impressive as almost all other such bounces over the past year. I noted in early February that several technical indicators were pointing to a buying opportunity. One of those indicators, the percentage of stocks trading above their 40-day moving averages (also known as “T2108“), is … Read more
The S&P 500 is now over 4% off the lows from oversold conditions. 40% of this entire move came on today’s surge as the dollar plunged over 1% versus the euro. The thrills occurred DESPITE poor news flow from the Greek sovereign debt drama: for example, imminent strikes to protest austerity measures and German hesitancy … Read more
The inverse correlation between the U.S. dollar and the stock market has snapped back into play with a vengeance since the 15-month closing highs for the S&P 500 set on January 19th. On that day, the dollar index rose for a second day, forming what was to become the bottom of a small pullback in … Read more