An Uneven Recovery from the Interest Rate Blues

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 17, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the minutes from its monetary policy decision meeting earlier this month. It contains some great detail on the RBA’s assessment of global financial conditions. … Read more

Estimating A 12-Month Range of 0.86 to 1.02 for the Australian Vs. U.S. Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 3, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) In the past week, we have seen two different views on the Australian dollar (FXA) from official government sources. Last week, the Australian Government Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) … Read more

A Crescendo Looms for the Australian Dollar Even As Traders Cast About for New Forex Leader

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 6, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) On Monday night (June 4th, Tuesday morning in Australia), the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave its cash rate steady at 2.75%. The statement contained no new news and … Read more

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes Suggest Rate Cuts Are About The Exchange Rate

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 21, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} In Monday’s minutes (Tuesday Australia time) of the May 7th policy meeting, the RBA provided no direct smoking gun to explain what I called at the time a mystifying rate … Read more

A Mystifying Rate Cut By the Reserve Bank of Australia

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 7, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Tonight (morning of May 7th in Australia), the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its interest rate to 2.75% whereas the consensus assumed that rates would stay steady at 3.0%. While the … Read more

Poor Employment Report Only Slows Australian Dollar’s Breakout

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 12, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last week, we learned that the Australian trade balance for February was much better than expected, -178M AUD versus expectations for -1B AUD and -1.2B AUD for January. Additionally, retail sales … Read more

The Reserve Bank of Australia Marginally Concedes To A Brighter Outlook

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 4, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) For many months, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been rolling out the same story of a peak in commodity prices, resource investment, and terms of trade. This month’s monetary policy … Read more

The Reserve Bank of Australia Explains the Link Between the Currency and Interest Rates

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 25, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) On February 22nd, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Glenn Stevens spoke with the Australian House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics. {snip} In his opening statement, Stevens delivered a nice … Read more

A Stealth Rally for the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 13, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) It took a record low on the GBP/USD currency pair [British pound (FXB) versus the Australian dollar (FXA)] for me to realize that the Australian dollar has been in “stealth rally” … Read more

Reserve Bank of Australia Holds Rates, Leaving Currency To Drift Lower

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 4, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) In its latest statement on monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said nothing new. The RBA left rates unchanged at 3% while at the same time making it clear … Read more