ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 19, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) In 2010, the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) rallied sharply only to peak in parabolic fashion in April. That Fall, I reaffirmed my belief that housing would bounce along the bottom … Read more
Almost a month ago I made another case for a bottom in TBT, the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury. The related breakout include some large, upward one-day moves. The churn included a convincingly successful retest of presumed support at the upper channel that formed the consolidation pattern for TBT’s bottom. Alas, that was not enough … Read more
A little over two weeks ago I pointed out that it looked like TBT, the ProShares UltraShort 20-Year Treasury, had finally bottomed. TBT broke out from an extended consolidation pattern that is the classic hallmark of a sustainable bottom. On Friday, TBT surged 3.3% after having erased all the gains from the breakout. TBT made … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 14, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) For the past few years, trying to call a top in Treasurys has been a fool’s game. From the manipulation of the Federal Reserve to fears of deflation to fears of … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.) Nouriel Roubini thinks the S&P downgrade could help lock the U.S. into a recession and Christina Romer wants to “swing for the fences” and respond with a massive jobs bill – Bloomberg Video: “Roubini, Rosner, … Read more
I thought TBT’s (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury) successful test of the 200-day moving average (DMA) back in March would mark the beginning of a fresh extended run higher. Instead, the declining 50DMA marked the true short-term trend, and, for the second time in a month, TBT failed to break that resistance. At the end … Read more
In late February, I lamented that TBT, the Pro Shares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF, was careening toward a retest of the 200-day moving average (DMA) that it would lose. After three more weeks, the anticipated retest finally occurred, and TBT survived. *Chart created using TeleChart: The retest of the 200DMA was a great reminder … Read more
While the general stock market just keeps crawling steadily upward, individual stocks continue to produce some very interesting, and very tradable charts. For example, over the past several months, I have been able to identify many valuable breakouts as well as some breakdowns. The three charts in this post are not directly related, but I … Read more
As the stock market continues its slow and steady creep upward, individual stocks experiencing technical breakouts are providing strong relative performance. Last week, I noted that U.S. Steel finally broke above its 200-day moving average (DMA), and it continues to barrel upward. On Tuesday, I took particular interest in three other potentially important breakouts: Whirlpool … Read more
Ahead of last week’s big events, I suggested that the market was setting up for a surprise reaction. So far, the biggest surprise has been the timing of the market’s big rally reaction after the election and the Federal Reserve’s announcement of quantitative easing and before the unemployment report. But that is not the surprise … Read more