T2108 Update (October 19, 2016) – The S&P 500 Bounces Weakly from Near-Oversold

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

A Pairs Trade for the Tesla – Solar City Tinderbox

Solar stocks have had a rough 2016. Solar City (SCTY) seems doomed to join the long line of troubled companies that fell from grace. The stock is down 64% year-to-date and has traded with a downward bias since its all-time high in February, 2014. Source: FreeStockCharts.com Tesla Motors (TSLA) is trying to come to the … Read more

Russia Versus Oil: Potential Technical Implications of A New Divergence

In recent months, I have been in the habit of fading rallies in Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) using Direxion Daily Russia Bear 3X Shares (RUSS) for quick, short-term trades. That streak may be on the verge of ending. Source: FreeStockCharts.com As the chart shows, RSX looked like it was ready to resume its downtrend … Read more

Eros International: Potential Trades On A Likely Binary Outcome

The recent plunge in Eros International (EROS) is finally getting some mainstream media attention in the U.S. Bloomberg ran a story on Friday, October 23. This attention finally prodded EROS management to issue a statement about the latest drama in its stock. Reuters quickly followed with a story on that press release. Forbes Asia did … Read more

The Disney Trade: A Two-Month Update

Two months ago I wrote “Disney’s Bearish Breakdown: A Case Study of Risk Management for Long-Term Investors” as a model for how to both respect a bearish development in a stock while staying focused on the long-term potential. Disney has already left those bearish tidings behind and is now ripping higher ahead of earnings on … Read more

How to Buy Twitter’s Stock for Less Than $20/Share

The big correction of August 24, 2015 (flash crash?) indiscriminately plunged stocks across the board. Twitter (TWTR) went as low as $21.01 before bouncing back and closing at $26.23. TWTR has steadily climbed along with the rest of the wobbly, recovering stock market. The lowest CLOSE for TWTR during this period, and its all-time low, … Read more

Disney’s Bearish Breakdown: A Case Study of Risk Management for Long-Term Investors

The stock of Disney (DIS) has suffered a massive and very bearish breakdown this month. At the time of writing, the stock has lost 19% since closing at its last all-time high. Source: FreeStockCharts.com Disney’s first breakdown came earlier this month. The stock lost 9.2% and closed below its 50-day moving average (DMA) on extremely … Read more

The Commodities Crash Accelerates: Scenarios for Trading Oil

Several authors have pointed out the difficulties in fashioning trades to take advantage of the movement in oil prices (for a recent example, see “Is Gasoline The Smart Oil Play? UGA Vs. USO“). Analyses counting off the bullish and bearish arguments on oil can fill many tomes. For example, there is fear of a drop … Read more

The Only Remaining China-Based Trade I Like

The Shanghai Composite Index (SSEC) plunged 8.5% to start trading for the week. The ripple effects were wide and far-reaching even as arguments continue floating that the collapse in China’s stock market matters little outside of China and does not truly reflect on economic conditions in the country. Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook summed up … Read more