ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in June, 2016 for May. At the time, the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) had just reversed all its post-Brexit losses along with a sharp rebound in global financial markets. I expressed concern that ITB finally reached a top for the current cycle. The ETF instead … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in May, 2016 for April. At the time, the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) was experiencing a healthy rebound on the heels of strong data on new home sales. The rally came to a quick halt and had one more small burst in early June. I … Read more
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data released in March, 2016. At the time, the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) was accompanying the market on an extended rally from the February lows. Resistance at the 200-day moving average (DMA) slowed down the advance. In April, ITB cleanly broke through resistance only to come to … Read more
At the 9th Annual J.P. Morgan Homebuilding & Building Products Conference on May 17, 2016, Meritage Homes (MTH) released good news on guidance for the second quarter and fiscal year 2016 (link updated 8/23). MTH expects notable year-over-year gains for FY2016 across all its top metrics except home closing gross margins: Home orders: +4-6% Home … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data released in March, 2016. At the time, the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) was accompanying the market on an extended rally from the February lows. Resistance at the 200-day moving average (DMA) slowed down the advance. THIS month, ITB cleanly broke through resistance only to come to … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 28, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last December, I wrote about the shaky prospects for the seasonal trade on home builders. Sure enough, iShares US Home Construction (ITB) has not performed this badly on an absolute or … Read more
LGI Homes (LGIH) has been trapped underneath its 200-day moving average (DMA) for the entire year of 2016. Earnings reports and closing reports could not re-ignite last year’s enthusiasm in the stock. Finally, the report on March closings did the trick. In response to the March closing report, LGIH soared 12.7% on almost three times … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data released in February, 2016. At the time, sentiment and data ahead of the Spring selling season was not as strong as I had anticipated. The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) has gained little since then and has even stalled out at resistance at its 200-day moving average … Read more
The last Housing Market Review covered data released in January, 2016. At the time, I warily looked at a nervous market and insisted that the steep decline in the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) and individual home builder stocks presented a great buying opportunity. I was conservative in my expectations including looking out to … Read more