Housing Market Review – Lumber Issues Loom Over Another Series of Strong Data (April, 2017)

The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in March, 2017 for February, 2017. At that time, the iShares US Home Construction (ITB) was at the bottom of what turned out to be a very shallow pullback from a near 10-year high. The subsequent recovery has been grinding and slow, but ITB now trades above … Read more

The Recent Market’s Strongest Stocks: Utilities, REITs…and Homebuilders?!?!

Sellers once again lost their advantage as the S&P 500 (SPY) came roaring right back from its ugliest close since the U.S. Presidential election. The bullishness on the day was on full display with the number of new all-time highs well out-pacing new all-time lows by 181 to 79. While the S&P 500 (SPY) still … Read more

Toll Brothers Upgrade Breathes New Life Into the Seasonal Home Builder Trade

With the technicals on the stock market weakening ever so subtly, I concluded that now might be a good time to lock in the rest of my profits on the seasonal trade on home builders. However, an upgrade from RBC on Toll Brothers (TOL) breathed new life into the home builder rally. TOL benefited mightily … Read more

A Wavering Economic Backdrop Suggests A Top for the Australian Dollar

Australia just celebrated setting a (modern era) world record for the longest string of quarters without a recession. Yet Australia’s economic backdrop appears to be wavering. This week’s labor force survey could provide a critical point of relief or pile on yet more concern. Iron Ore’s Latest Plunge I begin with iron ore – Australia’s … Read more

Housing Market Review – Spring Looks Ready to Bloom But Will It Bear Fruit? (March, 2017)

The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in February, 2017 for January, 2017. At that time, the iShares US Home Construction (ITB) was pressing against a near 10-year high. Uptrends in the 20, 50, and 200-day moving average suggested that “the coiled spring” was uncurling up and to the right. In March, ITB launched … Read more