The Housing Market Index: Strong Trends, Correlated Components, and A Weak Northeast

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 19, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) just released its November, 2013 report on builder confidence: the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). It showed no change from … Read more

Whirlpool Insists U.S. Housing Recovery and Homebuilding Look Fine From Its Perch

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 5, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Three months ago I wrote about about a disconnect that I perceived between investor assessments of Whirlpool (WHR) versus homebuilders like Tri Pointe Homes (TPH). {snip} Fast forward to November 4th … Read more

The National Association of Homebuilders Offers Sober Assessments of Economic and Political Impacts On the Housing Recovery

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 4, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) issued an important summary of recent economic and political news relevant to housing titled “Eye on the Economy: Slowing Sales.” Here are the key points … Read more

A Thematic Review of Focusing on Growth Within A Slow Housing Recovery: KB Home and Lennar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 20, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Homebuilders KB Home (KBH) and Lennar Corp. (LEN) both reported earnings on September 24th. I believe these were the first earnings reports for homebuilders after the Federal Reserve backed down from … Read more

Prepared to Buy Homebuilders Even As Housing Pause Reawakens Some Short Interest

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 29, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Homebuilder stocks joined most rate-sensitive plays by falling sharply from their lofty levels once the direction and momentum of rates became clear. {snip} I consider … Read more

The Plunge in Housing Affordability Raises the Stakes for the Federal Reserve

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 15, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) As markets worldwide await the Federal Reserve’s meeting September 17-18th, I imagine that housing will play a major role in the decision-making for monetary policy. Interest rates have risen sharply in … Read more

Credit Conditions for Housing Continue to Tighten

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 27, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) In December of 2012, I provided a description of the housing recovery from the eyes of mortgage investors who could see the recovery but worried about tightening credit conditions. Six months … Read more

Trulia’s New “Bubble Watch” Nudges California and Texas Housing Into Overvalued Territory

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 15, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} In Bubble Watch, Trulia Chief Economist Jed Kolko, Ph.D. explains that housing is not back in bubble territory based on incomes (which determine how much people can pay), rents (which … Read more

TRI Pointe Homes Versus Whirlpool: A Disconnect In Response to Bullish Housing-Related Reports

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 15, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) TRI Pointe Homes (TPH) reported very strong earnings for the second quarter of 2013. {snip} Year-over-year results were strong, and TPH raised guidance for the year. {snip} Based on strong demand, … Read more