M.D.C Holdings Earnings Provide More Insight on Housing Market But Fail to Impress

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 9, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) In November of last year, I identified M.D.C Holdings, Inc (MDC) as my second favorite pick for homebuilders for 2013. The main attraction was the sharp drop in short interest in … Read more

Homebuilder Price Performance Diverges in 2013 As Shorts Continue An Uneven Retreat

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 5, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) In late November, 2012, I made a list of my homebuilder picks for 2013. I combined valuation, price changes, and short interest to build the list. Almost 6 months later, it … Read more

The Federal Reserve’s Wariness Toward Housing

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 26, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The release of the minutes for the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting caused a lot of churn in financial markets, especially in currencies. I read contradicting headlines with one interpreting the … Read more

Word from Lancaster, CA: This Recovery Is For Real

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 25, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Something special must be happening in Lancaster, California, a small town of 155,000 people about 70 miles north of Los Angeles. After finding a thriving land development project in Lancaster, American … Read more

California Soon To Experience A New Construction Boom

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 10, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} …a fascinating story about a 2-man team, a real estate agent and a contractor, who have gone from boom to bust and hopeful boom. They went from a whiteboard full … Read more

The San Francisco Bay Area’s Housing Micro-Climates: A Microcosm of A Two-Speed Recovery

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 28, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The San Francisco Bay Area is known for its micro-climates. {snip} This area also has matching housing micro-climates. The crash and recovery from the housing bubble has exacerbated these micro-climates. In … Read more

Vornado Anticipates A Major Economic Expansion And A Bubble; Fears the Internet

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 14, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) I quickly caught a Bloomberg headline about plans from Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) to sell more than it buys. I went to the VNO 2012 annual report to see for myself … Read more

A Concentrated Way to Play Rapid Price Appreciation In The California Housing Market

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 9, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) TRI Pointe Homes (TPH) is a 4-year old company based in Irvine, California that on January 31, 2013 became the first homebuilder to go IPO since 2004. The Starwood Fund, managed … Read more

Incremental Improvement Continues for U.S. Mortgages

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 28, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) just released its report on mortgage performance for the fourth quarter of 2012. It is a story of mortgages that continue to … Read more