ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
I doubted the ability of Freddie Mac to forecast the housing market once. Never again. In the immediate wake of the pandemic, Freddie Mac insisted that housing would recover rapidly. I was highly skeptical. Freddie Mac turned out to be too conservative! Fast forward two years and Freddie Mac has delivered a surprisingly solid housing … Read more
The downtrend for the iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) won out yet again. Source: FreeStockCharts.com The buyers looked particularly convincing for NIB’s latest 50DMA breakout. Yet, a 1-2 punch of a return of good weather results in Ivory Coast and a particularly aggressive crop production forecast from Rabobank killed the latest rally for NIB. … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 28, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Australia’s Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) recently released its September, 2014 quarterly report on Australia’s resources and energy sectors and analysis of key commodity markets. Each report includes forecasts … Read more
I decided to take the plunge and read “How the Great Recession Was Brought to an End” by economists Alan Binder (Gordon S. Rentschler Memorial Professor of Economics, Princeton University) and Mark Zandi (Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics). Binder and Zandi conclude that the various stimulus programs and creative use of montary policy over the last … Read more
I am always intrigued by the words of optimism and the steadfast bullish arguments in the midst of market sell-offs. I am not talking about technical assessments calling for a short-term bounce. I am talking about the “everything is just fine” variety. Monday’s Nightly Business Report provided a picture-perfect example of such talk from Bernarnd … Read more
The on-going steep drop in steel stocks started in early April and preceded the S&P 500’s late April peak. With worries increasing about a global slowdown, I finally decided to look up worldsteel’s last update of its forecasts for 2010 (and 2011). I was quite surprised to find that in April, worldsteel expected “…demand in … Read more