ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Since the year 2000, delivering a different narrative for students and fans of financial markets: stocks, options, currencies, Bitcoin, and more…
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Japanese yen (FXY) traders have been here before. Earlier this year, the U.S. dollar (UUP) ripped from historic lows against the yen around 76 to a peak just above 84 in just … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 23, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting seem to suggest that members are starting to coalesce around Janet Yellen’s analysis that monetary policy should be more accomodative (see “Yellen’s Case … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 30, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) As recession descends across Europe, fiscal policies have received extra scrutiny. Austerity measures have been promoted as keys for long-term economic stability but the necessary short-term pains have been understated. Without … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} …if fear is running rampant in the gold trade, it is not fear of a recession, depression, etc… Instead, it is the fear of former chairman Alan Greenspan – better yet, it is the … Read more
(Originally appeared in Inflation Watch) The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis just published an article written by James Bullard, a non-voting member of the Federal Reserve and President of the St. Louis Fed, called “Measuring Inflation: The Core Is Rotten.” It is based on a speech Bullard delivered two months ago to the Money … Read more
First, Bernanke made it clear he thinks gold is not a good indicator of inflation expectations. Now, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco has produced research that could convince the Fed to insulate itself from the inflation expectations of average Americans in “Household Inflation Expectations and the Price of Oil: It’s Déjà Vu All … Read more
As the world’s currency wars rage on, the Federal Reserve is re-emerging as the “victor.” The dollar index looks ready to erase all its gains for 2010 on the heels of the Fed’s threat to roll out quantitative easing (QE) Part 2. This threat in turn came on the heels of the Bank of Japan’s … Read more
The dollar put on another weak showing on Thursday as it struggles to maintain critical support at the 200-day moving average. If it were not for the Bank of Japan’s intervention to weaken the yen the previous day, it seems the dollar would be well on its way down through a technical breakdown. *Chart created … Read more
For most of this year, I have interpreted the Federal Reserve’s policy to maintain “exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period” as the equivalent of low rates for at least the next six months from each new confirmation. This interpretation came from a January interview with New York Federal Reserve … Read more
A catalyst for working off the market’s over-extended and over-bought conditions remains elusive. The Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy statement essentially blessed the market’s stubborn “melt-up.” The statement did not provide the incremental “hawkishness” as I was expecting given last month’s surprise discount rate hike. In fact, this statement’s reference to low rates for an … Read more