The U.S. Dollar Fails To Benefit From Expectations for An Earlier Fed Rate Hike

Perhaps the shift was not large enough. Perhaps it was the magnetism of the 50-day moving average (DMA). After the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its last meeting on monetary policy, the U.S. dollar index (DXY0) promptly weakened. The dollar closed the day marginally lower after trading for a small gain in the morning. … Read more

Forex Critical: Rate Expectations Allow A Rise In Commodity Currencies

Currency traders spent much of 2016 cycling through bullish and bearish periods on the Australian dollar (FXA) and the Canadian dollar (FXC), the Western world’s two biggest commodity currencies. In particular, bullishness on both currencies waned rapidly going into the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate hike in December. Speculators adjusted positions to net flat and then … Read more

Housing Market Review – Fed Fallout Overshadows Strong Data (December, 2016)

The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in November for October, 2016. At that time, the iShares US Home Construction (ITB) was experiencing its first post-election pullback. I stayed focused on the strong housing data and treated the episode as a buying opportunity. Over a month later, the market is still ignoring the strong … Read more

T2108 Update (December 14, 2016) – A Fed Hangover Bursts the Overbought Rally

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (November 16, 2016) – A 5-Day Backup Under All-Time Highs for the S&P 500

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more