Pre-Brexit Event Risk Abruptly Becomes Bi-Directional

At least I expected to have a lot of commentary on the British pound going into the June 23rd referendum on the United Kingdom’s membership in the European Union (EU) aka “Brexit.” In the blink of an eye, the British pound soared against all major currencies.For emphasis, I show a 1-minute chart along side the … Read more

Japanese Yen: Maximum Bullishness Meets Maximum Search Interest – A Fever Ready to Break?

Traders remain very confident in the strength of the Japanese yen (FXY). Net longs stayed at “maximum bullishness” even ahead of last week’s monetary policy meeting by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders That boldness paid off as the BoJ failed to deliver more easing, and the yen soared. USD/JPY … Read more

This Time Is Likely Different for the S&P 500 With Rising Margin Debt

A recent article in Business Insider by Jesse Felder from TheFelderReport.com raised a loud alarm bell over rising margin debt levels in the U.S. stock market (see “A closely followed indicator says a 20% drop in stocks could be coming soon“). The article used the following chart as part of an analysis concluding that a … Read more

Housing Market Review – Slowing Momentum (March, 2016)

The last Housing Market Review covered data released in February, 2016. At the time, sentiment and data ahead of the Spring selling season was not as strong as I had anticipated. The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) has gained little since then and has even stalled out at resistance at its 200-day moving average … Read more

T2108 Update (February 26, 2016) – Exploring the Market’s Bullish Divergence

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more