ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
For the second time in a row, KB Home (KBH) is struggling to benefit from a strong earnings report. In January, investors rushed into the stock post-earnings only to create a massive blow-off top. In March, sellers started fading the stock on the same day of the initial post-earnings pop. Last week, KBH broke down … Read more
It was utter chaos in January, 2015: the Swiss National Bank (SNB) capitulated on its self-made 1.20 floor against the euro on EUR/CHF. The bottom completely fell out the currency pair and caused ripple effects around the world of forex. I barely traded the Swiss franc since then specifically because of what I perceived as … Read more
AT40 = 45.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 17.4 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) gained 2.0% for the week. Yet the week felt like a loser given the way it ended. The … Read more
AT40 = 37.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 40.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 21.5 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary via GIPHY The week ended badly with a 2.2% drop in the S&P 500 (SPY). The week began with the exact same … Read more
When I last wrote about the Mexican peso three months ago, I described the NAFTA-driven context surrounding the breakdown of USD/MXN below its 50-day moving average (DMA). I was still holding onto a long-standing short on USD/MXN. I managed to keep holding this short until Wednesday evening (April 4, 2018). Source: TradingView.com I closed my … Read more
The ink just dried on my last Housing Market Review. In that piece I lamented the on-going lagging performance of home builders and stagnating housing housing data, and thus concluded that it was time to call an end to the seasonal trade on home builders. Just two days later, home builders surged upward in sympathy … Read more
AT40 = 38.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 42.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 20.0 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The bears did their best to spook the market, but they failed to break it down. The foundations felt wobbly for most … Read more
This picture is exactly what I do not want to see as the stock market struggles to hold critical technical supports: a major index of economically-sensitive stocks confirming a breakdown of support at its 200-day moving average (DMA). The Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB) lost 1.3% on a day when the S&P 500 (SPY) … Read more
AT40 = 31.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 39.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 22.5 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary The market from another planet continues to wobble wildly on its axis. Today was the day for investors to make more withdrawals … Read more
AT40 = 25.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 37.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-year closing low) VIX = 24.9 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary On Friday, President Trump characterized the pre-Trump stock market as something “from another planet.” Surely he meant the last … Read more