ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Finisar (FNSR) was punished with a 39% one-day loss last week after announcing disappointing guidance for the current quarter that included the extremely poisonous phrase “…a slowdown in business in China.” The tremendous price drop combined with record trading volume of 40.4M shares displayed all the classic markings of complete abandonment by institutions and large … Read more
The primary upward trend in the S&P 500 finally ended, and the advantage in trading finally goes to the sellers for the first time since August, 2010. For me, technically, the upward trend ended with the flattening of the 20DMA. I noted this important change yesterday. The confirmation of the end came today with the … Read more
Once again, long-term support has successfully held for the dollar. The options market revealed that players were moving in anticipation of this bounce, but some observers were caught trying to use fundamentals to explain the action. Since the payroll number was the biggest news on Friday, it seemed players were bullish on the dollar because … Read more
The stock market has churned and gone nowhere for 10 trading days, a distinct break in the steady drip upward that saw traders, investors, and even trading-bots seizing upon nearly every dip as a buying opportunity. For six months a very basic equation has dominated: printing money = higher stock prices. For now, a conditional … Read more
On Friday, CNBC reported that on that day options players placed large bets bullish on the dollar: “The options market is gearing up for a bull run in the dollar after February’s non-farm payrolls showed improvement in the U.S. jobs picture. Options traders saw sizeable downside put buying in the EUR/USD…Before Friday’s payrolls data, the … Read more
After falling as much as 15% this year, Goldcorp (GG), my favorite way to trade gold, has shot up 20%. The move through February was almost a straight line and the stock moved particularly strongly last week. *Chart created using TeleChart: While I sold the last of my trading positions in GG last week, this … Read more
Higher oil prices are not helping solar stocks. Instead, earnings disappointments and hand-wringing in Italy over solar subsidies and policy have put downward pressure on almost the entire sector. While it seems the second half of 2011 could be rough for solar stocks, the current sell-off seems to be creating some buying opportunities. First Solar … Read more
In “The Tech Trade,” Eric Savitz provides details on a downgrade of Amazon.com (AMZN) by UBS. The title seems quite alarming: “Amazon: Streaming Video Will Pressure Margins, UBS Warns.” After I realized UBS was taking its price target from $195 to $180, just above AMZN’s current price of $177, I wondered why this research note … Read more
The stock market printed a timely and picture-perfect bounce on Friday. Ahead of the rally, I presented the relatively strong case for the bulls based on the previous 3-day pullback. By closing above Wednesday’s high of 1318, the S&P 500 is also poised to continue its gains. However, looking beyond this bounce from support, the … Read more
The risk of holding TBT, the Pro Shares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury, rose significantly last week. The sudden surge in oil prices in response to the rebellion in Libya has put the double-dip recession back into play and once again lodged it into the frontal lobes of market players. Recession fears bring fresh affinity for … Read more