Australian Dollar Poised for A Bounce After Holiday Trading Overreacts to Economic Data

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 6, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) On Wednesday, July 1, 2015 the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released international trade data for May which suggested that April’s big plunge may have been quite an aberration. On a … Read more

The U.S. Dollar Remains Stuck After Anti-Climactic Jobs Number

The U.S. dollar index (USDX) remains stuck in its downtrend by a thread. Source: FreeStockCharts.com The long-awaited catalyst was the U.S. jobs report for July, 2015. In my opinion, the report shed no new light on the timing for a Fed rate hike. It was pretty much more of the same. The stalemate on the … Read more

T2108 Update (August 5, 2015) – The “Fleckenstein Indicator” Flashes Bright Red

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

The Canadian Dollar Pushes To Fresh Post-Crisis Low on Broadly Weak May GDP

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 3, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Lost during last Friday’s alarm over U.S. wage growth was the report on May GDP for Canada from Statistics Canada. Canada reported its fifth consecutive monthly decline all but guaranteeing the … Read more

Atlanta Fed President Lockhart Screams Into the Wind On September Rate Hike

Reuters reported on August 4, 2015 that Atlanta Federal Reserve President Dennis Lockhart insisted to the Wall Street Journal that he firmly supports a rate hike in September. Only a “‘significant deterioration’ in the U.S. economy” would deter Locker. The 30-Day Fed Funds futures market was unimpressed – Locker might as well been screaming into … Read more

The Correct Narrative On U.S. Wage Growth for the Second Quarter: The Dollar Recovers

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 2, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) It seems odd to fear that wage growth is slumping in the U.S. with increasing momentum supporting minimum wage hikes across the country and through many industries. Yet, wage data on … Read more

Trading Lessons from the Elections In Turkey

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 14, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Turkey held national elections on June 7th. The events were well-covered given Turkey’s central location amid a set of geopolitical hotspots and its (former) place as a fast-growing emerging market. Source: … Read more

Turkish Lira Completes A Post-Election Reversal As Central Bank Waits On Inflation

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 28, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Since I laid out a post-election trading strategy on the Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) two weeks ago, events have gone on a very slow burn. The currency and the stock market have … Read more

T2108 Update (July 28, 2015) – An Important Stock Market Turnaround

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (July 24, 2015) – Bearish Signs Accumulate Just Above Oversold Conditions

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more