Forex

Rally in the British Pound Is Over-Stretched

The rally in the British Pound may finally be on its last legs. I am sure the Bank of England hopes so as it meets to decide interest rates tomorrow. I wrote just last week about the potential for the pound to break out versus the U.S. dollar, and it has done so quite convincingly. … Read more

25 Years of Decline for the U.S. Dollar vs the Japanese Yen

The U.S. dollar index touched its 200-day moving average with the kind of precision only a technician can love. *Chart created using TeleChart: I keep waiting for (and betting on) the dollar to get a nice relief bounce against the yen, but the dollar’s near straight-line descent has been the main story. While I wait … Read more

Another Critical Juncture for the U.S. Dollar Index

Here we are again: The U.S. dollar index looks ready to test its 200-day moving average (DMA). The near unrelenting selling of the dollar against all the major currencies has left the currency grasping for its believers. A surprisingly strong jobs number on Friday, might, just maybe, provide a catalyst for some kind of relief … Read more

British Pound Toys with a Breakout Versus the U.S. Dollar

The British pound’s bounce from May’s 14-month lows versus the U.S. dollar has surpassed all my expectations. The currency has stumbled at key resistance points as expected, but the trend upward has been persistent and undeniable. The pound has followed a steep channel straight up. The pound is now sitting right at its 200-day moving … Read more

British Pound Decisively Breaks Downtrend

The British pound continues its steady ascent from 14-month lows versus the U.S. dollar. This feat is not as remarkable as it could have been given the dollar’s steady descent against all major currencies since June. However, both fundamental and technical developments continue to favor even higher levels. Three weeks after dropping my bearish bias … Read more

Euro Weakness Boosts European Economies

I have often wondered whether Germany’s initial reticence to help the Eurozone solve its debt problems was “engineered”, in part, to devalue the euro from its suffocating highs in 2009. We will likely never know for sure, but the euro’s remarkable slide in 2010 has apparently generated impressive economic results, especially in Germany. There is … Read more

No Deflation Fears in Australia

“Commodity prices are off their peaks but those most important for Australia remain at very high levels, and the terms of trade are approaching their peak of two years ago.” – Royal Bank of Australia, “Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision” (July 6, 2010) From Australia’s perspective, the global economy continues to bring … Read more

The British Pound’s Momentum Now Faces Several Challenges

The British pound has gained a modest 3.5% since early June when I removed my long-standing bearishness on the currency. The momentum in the pound accelerated somewhat after last Wednesday’s release of the Bank of England’s minutes showed Andrew Sentance dissented from the rest of his fellow central bankers by calling for a rate hike. … Read more