ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 16, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) Three weeks ago, I was clearly premature in declaring an “ominous sentiment shift” in the Australian dollar (FXA). Since then, speculators have buckled down and returned to growing net long positions … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 25, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) The latest data on speculator forex positioning showed a sudden and abrupt change in sentiment on the Australian dollar (FXA). {snip} If this sharp drop in net longs turns into net … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 3, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kicked off central bank action for August with a rate cut to a fresh record low of 1.50%. Financial markets were anticipating a cut with … Read more
Last week was full of important news for forex trading. As a dollar bull, euro bear, and yen bear, the week presented particular challenges that hedging could only soothe a little bit. I had a good run with these positions in recent weeks. As forex goes, a setback was due – just too bad the … Read more
Global bond yields are falling like rocks, many investors are paying governments to hold their money, and odds are increasing for more monetary accommodation from the major economies in the likes of the United Kingdom, the eurozone, and Japan. In the U.S., expectations for a rate cut have essentially been moved off the table. So, … Read more
As the smoke started to clear from Friday’s post-Brexit carnage, one currency rose particularly well from the ashes: the Australian dollar (FXA). For example, against the U.S. dollar, the Aussie bounced perfectly off support at its 200-day moving average (DMA) and even maintained its earlier 50DMA breakout. Source: FreeStockCharts.com AUD/USD traded around 0.76 around the … Read more
Over the past two weeks or so, I have focused my currency trading on fading the British pound (FXB) and the Australian dollar (FXA). In “The Currency Market Is Lagging A Dramatic Shift in Brexit Sentiment,” I compared market sentiment versus the trading action and made the following claim (emphasis newly made): “If my interpretation … Read more
On June 6, 2016 (U.S. time), the Reserve Bank of Australia released its latest statement on monetary policy. The pronouncement was as pedestrian as ever, including leaving rates untouched. The most notable difference from the current and the previous statement appears to be the RBA’s reflections on inflation. In the current statement, the RBA made … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 31, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) At the beginning of this month, I claimed an unwind of confidently long positions was imminent for the Australian dollar. {snip} Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders {snip} Source: FreeStockCharts.com At … Read more
There is nothing like a quick reversal of what is supposed to be good economic news to confirm a bearish bias. On May 31st (U.S. time), the Australia Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its report on GDP for the March, 2016 quarter. GDP came in at a very strong 3.1% annualized rate thanks to another … Read more