ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
On Friday, the Australian dollar (FXA) enjoyed continued strength as financial markets rallied strongly into the close ahead of Sunday’s potential turmoil with Greek elections. Just two days ago, I wrote that I switched back to a bearish stance on AUD/USD after it reached my relief rally target of parity. I also said that “I … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 14, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Last week, the Australian dollar (FXA) took a rest from its longest post-recession sell-off (3+ months and running). Good economic numbers with surging GDP and surprisingly strong job creation forced traders … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 6, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Tuesday night, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported a surprise jump in GDP of 1.3% quarter-over-quarter. With growing fears of a global economic slowdown, analyst consensus had pegged growth only … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 5, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Futures estimated a 63% chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would cut rates by 50 basis points tonight, but the RBA went with the analyst consensus of a 25 … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 26, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Australian dollar…{snip}…has been highly correlated with the S&P 500 (SPY) for much of the last six years and more. The correlation has broken down at critical moments, the most interesting … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 30, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) It’s official – the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is trying to work the Australian dollar lower. In a surprise move, the RBA cut rates 50 basis points to 3.75%. Expectations … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 29, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) One of my reasons for recently turning bearish on the Australian dollar (FXA) is what I see as the likelihood of additional rate cuts through the year. It seems the consensus … Read more
Last week, I pointed out how the currency pair of the British pound versus the Australian dollar (GBP/AUD) was setting up for a breakout. That breakout occurred two days later and continues at the time of writing following weak consumer price index data from Australia. I sold my latest round of GBP/AUD long as I … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 16, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) I have been writing more and more bearishly on the Australian dollar this year (for example, see “Reserve Bank Of Australia Seems Biased Toward More Monetary Easing“). After BHP Billiton (BHP) … Read more
(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 3, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) In its latest statement on monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) dropped more hints that it is likely biased toward further easing of monetary policy and has a preference … Read more