Australia’s Heating Housing Market Pressures Monetary Policy

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 11, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Australian Bureau of Statistics released its December, 2014 data on housing finance in Australia. The data show that first-time home buyers continue to decline as a percentage of all dwellings … Read more

Parabolic Moves in the Ruble, Turkish Lira May Foreshadow the Same for the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 17, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Currency markets have been rocked with increasingly extreme moves in risk-bearing currencies like the Russian ruble (USD/RUB). Last week, the Russian central bank hiked interest rates from 9.5% to 10.5%. This … Read more

T2108 Update (November 10, 2014) – The Baton Firmly Returns to the Sellers

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

A Minor Intervention Scare for the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 13, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) On November 13th (in the morning in Australia), Christopher Kent, an Assistant Governor at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), delivered a speech discussing business cycles in Australia. The big news … Read more

Australian Dollar Loses Steam from Surprise China Rate Cut

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 24, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) One thing about a trading range is that it gives both bulls and bears a lot of trading opportunities. The latest disturbance of equilibrium in the Australian dollar (FXA) was the … Read more

Trading the Breakdown of the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 6, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The pressure is building on the Australian dollar (FXA). If it were not for the fresh collapse in the Japanese yen (FXY), the proverbial risk trade would be looking very shaky. … Read more

Apple Drives Australian Retail Sales, Trade Balance Worsens, and Reserve Bank Stays Steady

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 4, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Tuesday morning in Australia was a busy time for economic news. First, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the release of the Apple (AAPL) iPhone 6 helped drive electrical and … Read more

Forex Positioning Update: Short Euro, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, Long Pound

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 7, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) There was a lot of action last week in the foreign exchange market. This piece is a quick update on how I have adjusted and/or maintained positioning in select currencies: the … Read more

Unemployment and Commodity Prices Working Against the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 7, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) It is probably only a matter of time before the next deep swoon in the Australian dollar (FXA). On August 7th…the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported a spike higher in … Read more

A Stubbornly Strong Australian Dollar Introduces A Risk Factor into Economic Forecasts

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 26, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Australia’s Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) recently released its Resources and Energy quarterly for the June, 2014 quarter containing a notably more cautious tone toward the Australian dollar (FXA) … Read more