ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Housing Market Intro and Summary In my last Housing Market Review, I called the housing slowdown a “reality check.” That reality is settling into all corners of the market. With mortgage rates resuming their surge over the past two months, the go-forward picture has dimmed further for the housing market. It seems likely the housing … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: September was about as somber as it gets for financial markets. The S&P 500 lost 9.3% for the month which falls well below both the median and average (negative) historical performance for the index. With the June lows breached, the pandemic-era gains for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are now at … Read more
Over a month ago, I uncovered a sunny thesis about a bottom for the ARK funds. The timing of that post happened to be the exact top of the cycle for the ARK funds. Moreover, the S&P 500 (SPY) was trading just under its 200-day moving average (DMA) (the blue in the chart below). Once … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Extreme trading behavior finally appeared right after I insisted the stock market looked uninteresting despite dropping into oversold conditions. Oversold conditions did a stretch toward the year’s lows and created enough concern to finally send the volatility index soaring. Looming over the trading action all day was a collapse in the British … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Sellers followed through with yesterday’s post-Fed selling. With losses across the board, market breadth dropped into oversold trading conditions. Yet, as I explained could be the case, the stock market looks uninteresting. Because the major indices are fresh off important breakdowns, substantial downside risk remains. Because the volatility index actually closed down … Read more