T2108 Update (August 3, 2012) – Incipient Rally Strengthens, Raising the Bar On Bearish Trades

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 71.8% (first day of … Read more

T2108 Update (August 2, 2012) – Fade Continues

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 58.8% (first day of … Read more

T2108 Update (August 1, 2012) – Overbought Period Ends As Breakout Wavers

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 65.3% (first day of … Read more

Chart Review: As Expected, Apple Fills Post-Earnings Gap – Waiting Now For Bullish Breakout

Apple (AAPL) filled last week’s post-earnings gap in just four days. As discussed in “Apple’s Important Macro And Forex Calls And Likely Post-Earnings Recovery,” AAPL’s historical performance suggested a near certainty that this gap would get filled BEFORE the next earnings report. I gave a 50/50 chance on whether the gap would get filled in … Read more

The Bouncing British Pound Threatens A Breakout

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 29, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) I started with a bullish strategy to trade the British pound against the U.S. dollar (FXB) after fiscal and monetary authorities rallied to airlift more liquidity into the economy. It worked … Read more

Chart Review: A Clean Breakout for the Australian Dollar Means Time To Change Positions

The Australian dollar is now at 4-month highs versus the U.S. dollar (FXA). In what now looks like a clean breakout, the AUD/USD currency pair has hurdled over the latest resistance level which was the April high. Source: FreeStockCharts.com While I continue to believe the Australian dollar has a big sell-off ahead of it once … Read more

Starbucks Becomes A Short As 2012’s Gains Disappear

Ahead of Starbucks’ July earnings report, I warned that the stock was at a critical juncture. I concluded that Starbucks (SBUX) becomes a compelling short if it broke down through support. On Friday, SBUX broke down and at one point had erased all its gains for the year. Source: FreeStockCharts.com The -9.4% post-earnings performance was … Read more

The Australian Dollar Confirms the S&P 500 Breakout

(This is an addendum to the last T2108 Update that presented the case for an imminent, extended, overbought rally for the S&P 500). On Friday, July 27, the S&P 500 broke out in a rally that continues in grinding fashion from the June lows. In parallel, the Australian dollar (FXA) has also rallied from its … Read more

T2108 Update (July 27, 2012) – An Overbought Breakout And Signs Of A Sustained Rally

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag) T2108 Status: 73.9% (first day of … Read more

By Closing Above Its “QE2 Reference Price”, Dollar Increases Pressure On Fed

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 26, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) I did not think it would happen, but the dollar index finally closed above its “QE2 reference price.” {snip} I have contended that if the dollar index reached current levels, the … Read more