ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Last week, I claimed that the market is not yet overbought and that any corrections in the short-term will most likely be shallow. Without some specific and new catalyst, traders and investors, especially the ones who missed this latest rally, will treat pullbacks as golden buying opportunities. Moreover, I noted how, as expected, many analysts … Read more
I have seen and heard several headlines pronouncing that the market is overbought, extremely overbought even. Yet, my favorite oversold/overbought indicator, T2108, the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), has calmly churned around 60% for almost the entire month of December. The market is typically considered overbought after T2108 crosses … Read more
Lately, it seems I have been pointing out more and more stocks in breakout formations. It makes the skeptic in me a little wary and nervous, but I will keep rolling with what works. And steel stocks have finally started working over the past month. I have to assume that the market is seeking out … Read more
Last week, I mentioned that I had not yet decided on my re-entry strategy for gold and silver. I remain in neutral as gold, silver, and the dollar index churn in various holding patterns (using GLD and SLV as proxies for gold and silver respectively). GLD is right where it was two months ago. SLV … Read more
When Bill Gross declared a top in the bond market, MUB, the iShares S&P National Municipal Bond ETF, was still riding high between $105 and $106. Almost three weeks later, MUB cratered to 16-month lows, loudly declaring that the gravy train in munis had likely ended. Over the course of the past month, MUB experienced … Read more
As the stock market continues its slow and steady creep upward, individual stocks experiencing technical breakouts are providing strong relative performance. Last week, I noted that U.S. Steel finally broke above its 200-day moving average (DMA), and it continues to barrel upward. On Tuesday, I took particular interest in three other potentially important breakouts: Whirlpool … Read more
The S&P 500 printed fresh 2-year highs last week with decent volume. This marks a successful follow-through to the breakout from November’s trading channel. Given the index is now tagging the upper-Bollinger Band, it is even more likely that this move will be sustained, at least in the short-term. The longer-term chart suggests that the … Read more
I have been reporting the breakout of U.S. Steel (X) on twitter since last week, so I thought I would quickly post a chart outlining the case and provide some additional commentary. Like most steel stocks, U.S. Steel has lagged the S&P 500 for most of this year. The stock has churned in a wide … Read more
The week ended with the S&P 500, SLV (a silver ETF), and GLD (a gold ETF) all approaching former 52-week highs. The U.S. dollar dropped 1.3% on Friday, decisively failing at resistance at its 200-day moving average (DMA) and putting an exclamation point on the week’s action. The S&P 500 broke through its last battle … Read more
Short interest in Jinko Solar (JKS) increased at its fastest pace ever, almost doubling in the two weeks from October 29 to November 15, 2010 from 1.1M to 1.9M shares. When I last pointed out the soaring short interest in JKS, I was hoping this increase was a contrary indicator based on what I thought … Read more