Forex Critical: Turkish Lira Reverses Weakness As CBRT Gets More Aggressive

The problem with pattern-matching in financial markets is that “THIS TIME” could be different. Difference is exactly what happened with my latest trading plan for the Turkish lira (USD/TRY). The well-constructed plans I described a few days ago quickly hit a brick wall, forcing me to pull the cord and adjust those plans. The Central … Read more

Forex Critical: A Roiling Market Finally Shakes the Turkish Lira

In 2018, the Turkish lira experienced significant selling pressure. At one point in August, the currency went parabolic. USD/TRY gained as much as 34% in just three trading days from August 8th to the 12th. On August 13, 2018, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) responded with a laundry list of measures … Read more

Fresh Troubles for the Turkish Lira

The Turkish lira is in trouble again. Last week, USD/TRY hit an all-time high amid more dire headlines for the Turkish economy and the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). On April 3rd, Bloomberg reported the following issues: 7.4% GDP growth in 2017 is overheating the economy. Turkish companies … Read more

Turkish Lira Freshly Squeezed: Soaring Inflation and Erdogan

The tides are once again turning against the Turkish lira. For a week, USD/TRY battled with resistance at its 200-day moving average (DMA). Over the last two trading days, the currency pair finally made new closing highs on the 200DMA breakout. USD/TRY faded after testing the highs from the last 200DMA breakout in July. USD/TRY … Read more

The Turkish Lira Is Slowly Overcoming Its Recent Headwinds

The verdict is almost in: the Turkish lira is overcoming its headwinds. After the results of Turkey’s constitutional referendum in mid-April, the Turkish lira bounced around in indecision. Against the U.S. dollar, the indecision ended in conjunction with the April 28th release on monetary policy from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). … Read more

The Turkish Lira’s Comeback Slams Into Emerging Market Weakness

When I last wrote about the Turkish lira in mid-January, USD/TRY had pulled back sharply off a parabolic run-up. The iShares MSCI Turkey (TUR) was also at the beginning of a dramatic bottoming pattern that was later confirmed with a close above its 50-day moving average (DMA). Source: When the Central Bank of the … Read more

The Climax of A Parabolic Move: The Case of the Turkish Lira

Desperate times bring out the creativity. On Thursday, January 12, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) effectively tightened monetary policy by canceling its weekly auction used to fund banks. On top of this move, Turkey’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, likened Turkey’s forex predicament to a fight against economic terrorism. Deutsche Bank (DB) … Read more

The Turkish Lira Approaches All-Time Lows As the Central Bank Fails to End the Selling

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 31, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) A month ago, I pointed out how the Turkish lira had reversed all its post-election losses. I argued that the lira was due to resume its weakness as the Central Bank … Read more