ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Stock Market Commentary The U.S. stock market quickly rebounded from the weekend’s jolt of pandemic news from Europe. The initial bout of selling created a close call for the extended overbought period. The comeback of buying picked the stock market off the threshold for overbought conditions but a sustained survival remains unsettled. While buyers convincingly … Read more
Bitcoin Sentiment Riding High The Google Trend Momentum Check (GTMC) is staring down another test with Bitcoin (BTC/USD). A run-up in Google search interest in Bitcoin accompanied the run-up of Bitcoin to all-time highs. Google search interest is a proxy for sentiment. Accordingly, Bitcoin sentiment is running at extremes relative to recent levels. Per the … Read more
The British pound has experienced a lot of fireworks this month, but the currency remains in an uptrend against the U.S. dollar (GBP/USD). I stayed focused on this uptrend when I insisted on trading contrary to the screaming headlines about the UK getting the quarantine treatment from the rest of Europe. The rebound unfolded a … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The Federal Reserve signaled an incremental improvement in its economic outlook by making an allowance for limited stock repurchases and dividends by the country’s top financial institutions. As a result, bank stocks apparently soared in after hours trading. That fresh rally in financials should extend to a positive open on Monday and … Read more
Stock Market Commentary A week ago, the stock market stretched into an extended overbought rally. The stock market proceeded to relax from that stretch. Yet, the breadth indicators barely budged and allowed the overbought rally to reach a key overbought threshold and test of the extended overbought rally. The overbought period reached 20 days in … Read more
Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 79.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (Day #10 overbought) AT200 = 77.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (7 1/2 year high) VIX = 20.8 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary A week ago, the overbought stock market stretched for a … Read more
The stock market has enjoyed overbought trading conditions for the last 13 trading days and 14 of the last 15. I consider the stock market overbought when AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), trades above 70%. Overbought periods are times of mixed feelings. The stock market tends … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary A divergence in the housing market emerged between rangebound home builder stocks and strong housing data. In October, new home sales recorded a third straight month at the 1 million mark. Since new home sales hit the August peak, the stocks of home builders have also largely gone nowhere. A … Read more
Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 79.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (Day #10 overbought) AT200 = 76.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (near 3-year high and holding breakout above post financial crisis downtrend) VIX = 20.8 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Instead of Monday, … Read more
Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 76.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (Day #6 overbought) AT200 = 71.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (near 3-year high and holding breakout above post financial crisis downtrend) VIX = 23.7 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market … Read more